Craig Edwards' Snooker and Golf Blog

Golf Outright 2021
Lifetime: 2297 bets, 48.67% ROI
2021: 708 bets, 38.44% ROI

After only breaking even in 2020, I was delighted to see the Golf Outright model back on track. Golf is a great betting sport and there’s more than one way to skin the cat and my style has always been the highest variance route in the attempt to maximise profits long term. This is a built-in ethos for my service as the lower variance of golf place and snooker manage our bankroll against those long losing streaks that hit the outright model. That downside to high variance has hurt us since September with no outright winners despite many close shaves as the model was above 50% at the end of August. That’s to be expected long term but the top of the market-dominating the PGA Tour events in the fall wasn’t helpful or the usual occurrence. Noticeable that my volume is high at 708 bets and one aim is to reduce that by 10 or 15% in 2022. The other aim is to improve my staking, as on occasion when we went 0.2ew or bigger our selections run poorly. That was something I did well in the opening two years of service but has been a leak the last two years. That’s likely variance but the short-term impact in 2021 hasn’t been ideal but the upside is we’ve had some serious CLV (closing line value) and unwittingly the bookies have dodged many good bullets in late 2021.
I need to mention, that like the golf place model, it’s entirely feasible someone betting exchanges at 30 to 40% higher win prices has a better ROI than our 38%.
Overall, I’m content we hit what we should on Golf outright in 2022 in the knowledge it would have been a little better in the second half of the year with kinder variance.

Golf Place

Lifetime: 1937 bets, 25.81% ROI

2021: 512 bets, -0.64% ROI

January to June: 281 bets, 79.45 staked, -11.75, -14.82% ROI

July to December: 231 bets, 41 staked, 11.13 profit, 27.12% ROI

It’s been the most difficult year of four on my place model and I’ve broken the year into two halves to illustrate the poor opening six months.  I adjusted in the second half of the year decreasing volume by approximately 20% and stakes by 50%.

Over the three previous years, the place model was my mainstay balancing variance perfectly and particularly in year 3 when golf outright only broke even.  The results are the results and all that matters but it’s plausible we had a ridiculously high number of blowups from positions trading at sub1.25+ on the exchanges, and it’s prudent to point out that taking exchange prices were at least 20% bigger on Wednesdays across the board.  That said, post-Covid-19, the strengths of the fields changed particularly at the top end so it’s not surprising that the profit was made in the second half of the year when the players’ schedules finally settled back into the previous status quo.

The success in the early years of the model brought me directly into conflict with the major bookmaker we all use and the compiler the golf industry relies on to formulate the initial model.  There was a period in 2020 when they had gained access to my tips and were cutting prices in moments post email.  Interestingly after 12 months of holding back the place markets until the last few months of 2021, they’ve been going up first again which cynically will be because they had stopped the leak.  That may have been to our advantage in recent months and can be going forward.

Variance is a cruel mistress and there’s little doubt we had the worst of it in 2021 but I also made mistakes with volume and staking during the opening six months. 

Overall review

Lifetime: 6842 bets, ROI 28.87%

2021: 2187 bets, ROI 18.71%

January to June: Bets 1158, staked 224, ROI 15.18

July to December: Bets 1029, staked 144, ROI 24.19

I hope you will forgive me for doing my yearly review a little early but after this week our figures won’t change markedly for the worse and I want some time away from betting.  This will allow me to digest this review and enjoy time with my family over the festive season to recharge my batteries for 2022.

It feels like an average year at bookmaker prices making 18.71% for members and like always in life, betting is a constant learning curve.  There’s no doubt, it’s the Golf Place model that brought our ROI down below 20% for the first time in a yearly review.

To help, I broke the year down into two halves which proves my point that Golf Place dragged the profit down given we know that it was profitable in the second half of the year from our earlier review.

That leads to the conclusion that the opening six months results on the Golf Place model dragged the overall ROI down.

That said, I’m immensely proud of my service and anyone using exchanges will have gone above 20%.  I have been lucky enough to build up a core of some great long-term members whose trust and support is much appreciated.

Betting is meant to be fun! I believe my service offers that opportunity while making some nice profits with the occasional big hits to enjoy.  If you ever feel betting isn’t fun, then take a break as there’s more to life than the next winner.

It leaves me to say, I hope you and yours have come through this troubling period in the World unscathed as there’s nothing more important than family and loved ones. 

Let me take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Craig

Snooker 2021
Lifetime: 2459 bets, 16.75% ROI
2021: 922 bets, 15.15% ROI

Please forgive me for completing the snooker review before next week’s finish but I don’t expect figures to be markedly worse.
The snooker model has delighted and frustrated me in equal measure during 2021.
Let’s get the frustration out of the way and that’s simply how poorly we’ve run variance/results wise in the outright markets. In truth the previous 18 months was fantastic in snooker outrights while the previous 18 months to that was as frustrating as this current spell, though I’m hoping Xintong hitting in the UK Championship is the start of better form. There’s no way of building up a big sample of bets quickly like at golf in snooker outright so all we can do is be patient. When you look at near misses with Bingtao and Lisowski recently it’s variance and also a fact that the top of the market has dominated. If recent events and younger winners have a changing of the guard effect, I’m hoping we have good days ahead and we already have a unique and unusual high volume of ante-post bets.
As mentioned in last year’s review, one aim was to increase volume in 2021 and we did by 80%. Now I’ve proved what, I thought I learnt at the end of 2020, I will endeavour to increase stakes slightly also. It’s encouraging to know that betting without outrights would have yielded 20%+ and as such as I’ve mentioned before, it’s okay to bet more on snooker than golf. The main thing to do, if you choose to, is to be consistent and disciplined with staking perhaps reviewing yearly only. What I also need to mention, is that if you increase stakes on side markets particularly by too much you allow bookmakers to mark and close accounts so make sure you have new ones ready to use. Snooker is different to golf in fact that we have only the bookmakers to use as exchanges aren’t liquid apart from Money lines.
Overall, I feel more content with my snooker for the first time than any of my previous four years reviews. Famous last words but I feel confident 2022 could be our best year yet.

Ronnie v Kyren

These two have an interesting h2h with Ronnie leading 7-3 and appearing in charge. The matches however tell a different story and have been the route cause for Kyren’s Clinchers disease with Ronnie winning QF GP from 1-3 down 5-3, Shanghai masters QF losing 6-5 from 1-5 up and ofcourse the COC final when he lost 10-9 from 9-8 up and on a break of 61. Hard losses to take for anyone but it does show Kyren has the ability to outplay Ronnie for long periods. Sadly today he is 13/8 best price which is unappealing for a bet and possibly a bet in running if their learnt behaviour continues.

McGill v Brecel

Interestingly, h2h Brecel leads 4-0 and the bookmakers have made him favourite despite being behind McGill by 40 or 65 points in outright betting pre which is unusual and points to McGill on value as in truth if these two player Quarter Final of WC no way is Brecel fav. Also h2h domination has become a hinderance deep with player’s expectations causing the Domino effect this week which counterintuitively again leans to McGill winning but at 2.00 I am happy to pass.

Hicks v Hawkins

I’ve enjoyed watching and profiting from Andy’s progress, having spent many hours practising with him at the Norbreck Castle back in the day. It goes to show how class stays with a player and the power of his play broke DG in the end. Can he do it again today? I do hope so and like DG, the Hawk can crumble if you can keep pressure up. Cannot bet on Andy but I will be rooting for him on many levels especially as winner will play Xintong or Lisowski to make the final.

Liswoski v Xintong

When the players came out for frame 1 yesterday, Lisowski looked ultra focused to do the business in frame 1. I thought this is cool, he looks on it and would win easy. Frame 2 he got edgy and his shot selection and focus went. Overall he was fortunate to win, having played like a headless chicken. That mindset doesn’t bode well for out outrights and hearing him say they would both go for everything made me cringe (he has so much experience deep in events compared to his opponent, now is the time he needs to use it so let’s hope it was psychology but I doubt it). Whoever wins will never have an easier opportunity to make the UK Champs final.

Conclusion

As always deep in these events, bets become a rarer commodity in matches with pricing easy for bookie and players playing their truer form.
If Lisowski or Hawk play Ronnie in final it will be a done deal for the ‘Rocket’. Xintong may have the same chance the ‘Rocket’ did against Hendry in 93 however, so that would be one to revisit.
No official bets, I’m just going to enjoy the quarter finals while adding quarter 4 profits to an excellent two weeks, there will be bets with more edge in the coming days so no need to force any today

Dear snooker member,

I had a couple of enquiries from new members how level staking would pan out. Last year it would have been both staking forms at 21% as blog entry shows. This year’s will be broken down over the new year but there’s not been the outright success thus far so it’s doubtful level staking would be the same or better. Currently in 2021 we are running at 15% across all snooker bets……

I certainly would never put anyone off level staking the snooker long term though

Blog entry 11 months ago below
The snooker model finished the year with 625 selections if I counted each way ones as 2 (counted as 1 on sheets). I did this to split up how many bets we had and could review them at level stakes in comparison to the staking plan. From late November I took a more gregarious approach with higher volume in the final weeks of 2020 while reducing individual bet stakes. Remarkably both ways came out with 21% ROI and that is counting Holt as each way winner at 67.00 in the shootout. Early 2020 we had fewer bets, but we had an excellent run on the Outrights with Holt winning (101.00 was available but counted as 67.00), we also had Yuelong and Dott as runner up for ½ two places at 67.00. After Ash Carty qualified for World Championship at 34.00 and McGill won his quarter at 23.00 (July) we then run dry until the UK Championship when Yuelong won his quarter at 19.00(December). During and after our volume increased on match selections and we run at over 20% on the match and break markets alone in this period that was dominated by favourites (11.00 sub) reaching all the finals. My main reason for building the volume was because players were in a monotonous situation and thus any upswings or dips in forms could be magnified and relied upon more by us as punters. 2020 was a year of two halves and in fairness, our snooker model was a microcosm. I plan to start 2021 slowly and feel my way in as always while intending to increase the volume of bets with higher staking than November and December if the Milton Keynes dynamic develops which looks likely. If my staking had increased with the volume of those two months, we would have made more profit but these new Covid 19 dynamics meant I was a little reluctant to believe a new dynamic without some plausible proof I was right. If I get this right in 2021 then I will increase snooker profits regardless of outright bets.

Dear snooker member 
As dissappointing as it was again for Yan Bingtao to fall on the final match the truth is John Higgins played much the better after the interval. Hopefully you all hedged a few bob back.

These two have some wonderful matches and the World final that Trump won, was a watershed giving him the biggest injection of self confidence imaginable. That was because prior he hadn’t beaten John Higgins in the longer format of the game and put him on a pedastool mentally.

Interesting today how we are at a full circle with Trump winning the last 8 matches between the pair since the World final and reaching this week’s final having won 16 successive frames.

Then we see John has had a late night and coming off the two final disappointments.

Everything points to Judd Trump winning surely?

As long as John can keep the early exchanges competitive today, I feel he could get his own watershed moment.

Sadly, given John was going off at 10/3 and 7/2 versus Trump in last year’s semi finals they played prices between 2.68-2.88 make no appeal.

So will just sit back and enjoy the final, maybe cheer John on who has been brilliant on occasions in recent weeks.
You are receiving this email as part of the Edwards’ Tips premium service to which you have subscribed. To unsubscribe, please cancel your automatic payment profile.

Kind regards,

Craig Edwards

Edwards’ Tips

Check results and follow me
Results / Twitter

Please bet responsibly. For more info see www.begambleaware.org. 

Subscribers have already landed Yan Bingtao to win quarter bet and tonight he needs to win to guarantee the each way money at 33/1.

Despite that, at the prices Yan Bingtao is a still bet tonight due to the merits of today’s dynamics.

Given Bingtao’s strong head to head against Higgins I was surprised to see the Scot as a strong favourite and indeed a bigger price than David Gilbert was yesterday.

Ofcourse, John Higgins is a great champion who could rise to the occasion tonight like great champion’s do but he looked drained of confidence on the conclusion of yesterday’s quarter final when his hard tip and thining cloth were to blame for a looser cue ball control than ideal.

If he doesn’t get an early foothold tonight, I believe the young Chinese star could be too strong and have taken two bets;

15  Yan Bingtao to beat John Higgins 13/10 b365, 2.40+ exchanges

5     Yan Bingtao -2.5 frames alternate handicap at 10/3 easily available.

Yan Bingtao v Hossein Vafaei

This match has a very similar dynamic as the previous one without the head to head dynamic.

Yan Bingtao was an impressive Masters champion last year adding to his already impressive CV from the previous year.
That highlight shone bright for the talented precocious talent from China in last year’s season when he came unstuck on many occasions in the other events and particularly best of 7s.
In the snooker world it’s become impossible to see future world champions like days of yore but Bingtao looks one to me.  His no frills deadpan Matchplay style looks perfect for the longer formats of the game where he wears down the opponent similar to Mark Selby and Kyren Wilson.  Like those two however, he’s a little more vulnerable in best of 7 without them explosives spells of form that the likes of Judd Trump and Jack Lisowski utilise to put their matches to bed in less than half an hour.
This makes him vulnerable tomorrow morning against Hossein Vafaei, a similar no frills player but in seemingly better form at the moment.  Vafaei comes from a tough upbringing in Iran that is likely to serve him well as he carves out a career.  That career is already underrated by bookmakers despite several semi finals and deep runs.  Importantly, he’s not the sort of player to be overawed as he proved against Judd Trump in the Welsh Open.
The clincher for a bet here is that Yan Bingtao is coming under a world of pressure with his world ranking plummeting despite winning the Masters.  So much so that unless he breaks his cycle of poor form he may fall out of the top 16 and even the top 32.  Psychologically that has to be at the back of his mind, I do think he will pull out of this nose dive by winning or going deep in several events but for tomorrow match he’s got an extremely difficult opener.
If Bingtao was in his best form, I would only make him the price that the bookmakers have opened but with all those dynamics applied, I don’t make him much better than a slight favourite tomorrow.  Plenty of 13/8 around and I’ve already been matched on exchanges above 2.90+

0.2  Hossein Vafaei to beat Yan Bingtao 7/4 (2.75) upwards, 0.1 below

Zhou Yuelong v Jimmy Robertson

A brief write up on tonight’s match between Zhou Yuelong, last year’s UK Championship semi finalist and Jimmy Robertson who looks to be returning to his best form.
Subscribers will know how profitable Zhou Yuelong has been for us to follow these past fifteen months but today I’m deserting him.  The British Open was a good return to these shores for Yuelong but the way he lost to Elliott Slessor in their semi final when missing a match winning black off the spot wasn’t ideal.  Due to Covid-19 protocols he’s been unable to play in the qualifying events leaving him no opportunity to get it out of his system.  Losing those opening rounds through no fault of his own won’t have done anything positive for Yuelong who needs a strong run to make his first Masters in January.
Jimmy Robertson however, is ticking along very nicely with a semi final berth in that Briitsh Open and solid qualifying wins since.  He’s starting to look like the player who won the European Masters a couple of seasons ago.
As always snooker matches are 80% plus in the mind’s of the player’s and I can’t help but think that at this moment Jimmy Robertson has the impetus in that department.  There is also the small matter of their head to head record of 4-0 to Robertson.  For checks and balances it’s fair to mention that those meetings were prior to 2018 but it’s still a one sided dynamic and another small psychological factor pointing to Jimmy Robertson especially given the bookmakers pricing that has Zhou Yuelong as a solid favourite at between 8/13 and 4/6.  I actually managed to get matched on Jimmy at 2.48 on the exchanges but any prices north of 2.20 are a worthwhile play on Jimmy Robertson tonight.  For me it’s a 0.1 unit play upto 2.30 increasing to 0.2 units if you can get above 2.30 which should be easily obtainable on exchanges.

Jimmy Robertson to beat Zhou Yuelong 0.2 units if you can get 2.30 and above and 0.1 below.

After a poor couple of weeks on the golf, the perfect time to review how things have been going in 2021. The screenshot has top line of lifetime bets and bottom line of 2021.

Firstly, this week obviously Bubba was a major disappointment last night having traded at 1.52 as was Larrazabal, in Germany.

I will start with snooker as I know it’s been a quiet few weeks and it’s about to restart this month. There as a glut of outright winners around end of 2019 and start of 2020 but that has been barren since apart from Yuelong at 21.00 in the UK before xmas. With that considered, I am delighted by the figures given outrights have been costly and we have been left to accumulate profit on matches. Milton Keynes post covid helped the match betting while increasing our volume, no doubt but with a couple of exceptions all outright winners were less than 10.00 which was not helpful and maybe linked. Noticeable how Murphy was inspired by a venue in the Worlds so logically there may be better outright value post Milton Keynes.

The golf place model has performed poorly for the opening six months of 2021 and with exception of Coupland in the British Masters long priced winners have been thin on the ground. The average price of top 20 finishers has risen in recent weeks, yesterday 7 of top 18 in travelers were 200 or above while over in Germany there was 5 in top 14 or 8 in top 25, either way that trend suggests form is balanced back to pre covid times which is encouraging for our place model. I will keep stakes small through the British Open in four weeks and review again with a view to increasing stakes slightly during the later months of 2021. The place model had been such a brilliant performer maybe this is just an expected period of poor variance and we have had many players trade sub 1.2 in recent months only to implode while others have lost money by dead heating, either way I will review again post Open Championship.

The golf outright has been pleasing in 2021 having only broke even in 2020 but my high price and high variance style accounts for the most pleasing ROI (50% 2000bets) long term and the strength of the service despite one break even year. I have made several choices to increase stakes at different events and the results have been less than ideal so with that considered 35 units of profit in 2021 is gratefully accepted and actually could have been better.

The further I get into my tipster’s journey the more I realise that what I thought was a big sample is a perhaps a nothing sample and break even or periods of loss are maybe to be expected. As always the whole experience is a huge learning curve as dynamics change every day so thanks for the support and here’s to more profits in the later half of the year.

Difficult to equate what affect the withdraw of Trump and Lisowski will have on today’s quarter.  Certainly getting a life into these big events has proved profitable for Ali Carter (Masters last year) and Maguire (Tour Championship).  The problem for us is that Gary Wilson looks all wrong mentally although if being handed 15k doesn’t help maybe nothing will. 
Perry has been below his best all year but did reach the quarter finals of the UK Championship only to lose and play terribly against Lu Ning, Perry does have Masters pedigree however. 
Kyren Wilson (in form compared to the others) now looks the likely winner of this quarter and even at odds on looks slim value (needed 2.25+ to tip) in my book given I make him 1.20-1.25 to beat Gary Wilson today followed by a match against Joe Perry or David Gilbert who I make 3.75 and 3.25 to beat him respectively.  I think if Kyren is to get beat by one of those players I favour David Gilbert but if you put a gun to my head tonight Joe Perry would be the selection to beat him.
David Gilbert like Gary Wilson may be starting to get haunted by the thought of losing his 100000 ranking points after the World Championship and sadly has looked gone mentally in ranking events for the last 12 months since reaching the Masters semi final.  The only glimpse of his old form was in Champion of Champions and it may be that is to do with the fact that like the Masters there are no ranking points and Dave’s mind is a less cluttered.  I don’t think it’s Gilbert’s game that has gone just his mind, therefore if Dave was to beat Perry tonight and play well the confidence gained might be enough to beat Kyren who often looks a little wrong these days.

Sadly for those reasons it’s a no bet day for me and I can’t remember two worse matches to open a Masters.

For those lucky enough to have the tournament sponsor’s, betfred account they have Perry at 3.00 to make a 100+ break in the “pick your punt” section which is overpriced.  They also have an outright market whereby you get free £2 For every 100 break by your player and if Kyren Wilson wins this quarter he likely makes anywhere between 3 to 5 centuries.

One more withdrawal means Zhou Yuelong would get a start, now that would be interesting….

Dear member,

This is my yearly review and when looking at the figures it reminds you that you don’t have to stake big to win at sports betting and I’m an advocate of betting responsibly as it helps keep betting fun but also the enjoyment of the sport. For that reason, you will never see me on Twitter bleating about bad luck, bad beats or more importantly our player performing badly. Sportsman have bad days (I can still vaguely remember lol) and I always prefer to accentuate the positive. For those reasons, if you ever feel uncomfortable betting or in life, you can always reach out to me for a chat because I’m a believer in only betting if you can afford the downswings and you are happy in life.
The snooker model finished the year with 625 selections if I counted each way ones as 2 (counted as 1 on sheets). I did this to split up how many bets we had and could review them at level stakes in comparison to the staking plan. From late November I took a more gregarious approach with higher volume in the final weeks of 2020 while reducing individual bet stakes. Remarkably both ways came out with 21% ROI and that is counting Holt as each way winner at 67.00 in the shootout. Early 2020 we had fewer bets, but we had an excellent run on the Outrights with Holt winning (101.00 was available but counted as 67.00), we also had Yuelong and Dott as runner up for ½ two places at 67.00. After Ash Carty qualified for World Championship at 34.00 and McGill won his quarter at 23.00 (July) we then run dry until the UK Championship when Yuelong won his quarter at 19.00(December). During and after our volume increased on match selections and we run at over 20% on the match and break markets alone in this period that was dominated by favourites (11.00 sub) reaching all the finals. My main reason for building the volume was because players were in a monotonous situation and thus any upswings or dips in forms could be magnified and relied upon more by us as punters. 2020 was a year of two halves and in fairness, our snooker model was a microcosm. I plan to start 2021 slowly and feel my way in as always while intending to increase the volume of bets with higher staking than November and December if the Milton Keynes dynamic develops which looks likely. If my staking had increased with the volume of those two months, we would have made more profit but these new Covid 19 dynamics meant I was a little reluctant to believe a new dynamic without some plausible proof I was right. If I get this right in 2021 then I will increase snooker profits regardless of outright bets.
The Golf place model was as reliable as the previous two years though I did have a dip in form towards the end of the year bringing down the ROI from just under 40% to 30% which is the mean over three years. Remarkably we only had 60 winners from 456 bets which were slightly disappointing although logically most PGA Tour events were less exploitable with the average price I use. If we get a normal 2021, I expect this to change back to normal. If you had level staked my place model at the best price you would have returned 638 from the 456 bets bringing a slightly better ROI than our 28%. I realise how difficult it is to get the best price on all selections like Saddier 51.00, Potter 26.00 (settled at 17.00), Humphreys 26.00, Summerhays 29.00, Gordon 26.00 (settled at 17.00) and Papp 26.00 so I will ignore that but it must be said with a slightly higher strike rate which is achievable in normal year profits could go significantly higher to level staking. My aim for 2021 is to increase my strike rate slightly to nearer 1:7 from 1:8 but overall, it continues as the best and most solid form of sports betting I’ve found with the knowledge that any downswing is at a minimum. I think I can increase win rate and if the end 2020 was an inevitable downswing out of the way I would like to believe we should get above 30% for 2021.
After two huge years and an ROI over 50%, the Golf Outright model found bad variance post March after Perera won at 126.00 and post Covid-19, harder dynamics to deal with. We had more bets than previous years and our ROI was a disappointing 4%. Despite that, in three years the model is still functioning at 50% ROI due to a wider spread at smaller stakes in 2020 and that reflects the harder post-Covid-19 dynamics at least by staking less. That was to counteract the effect Covid had on the resumption on the PGA Tour where the percentage of 201.00 priced golfers in the top 20 was at an all-time low. There were however a few outsiders that won, Michael Thompson, Jim Herman, Robert Streb and Martin Laird that won and in harsh truth all made my lists for that week, but I chose to not tip. That goes to show that golf is the only sport where you can logically and skilfully back 201.00+ shots and expect that a certain percentage will win. In the previous years of course luckily, I chose a couple more of those priced winners that make a huge difference to a year. I intend to proceed cautiously particularly on the PGA Tour with less bets until field strengths return to normal, that said if we return to a normal schedule so will the elite player’s schedules and a normal equilibrium will be restored. Likewise, The Sony Open, the second week of the PGA season is often a big week and I’m hoping for a normal early season run of events in America. The European Tour not so much and with over 40 tournaments planned it could be the most profitable one of the two. Hopefully the Champions, Korn Ferry, LPGA and Challenge Tour will have strong schedules allowing us to dip in and out when the venues’ dictate, we should.
The service in three years has run at 30%+ ROI with Golf Place is 29%, Golf Outright at 50% and Snooker 18% which I am delighted and proud of but 2020 was the most difficult year to date with Golf place running at 28%, Golf Outright at 4% and Snooker at 21% which accounted overall for 16.8% ROI. That said the strength of the service as always is the models complement each other and allow members to steadily build their betting bankroll. There is another factor that affected our golf returns and that was a lack of champions tour events. In 2018 Tom Gillis smashed our profits sky high for a couple of events like Doug Barron in 2019. Lack of tournaments and the in-form rookies being Ernie Els and Jim Furyk hurt our profits undoubtedly. This brings me onto the subject of staking and how it potentially affects our profits long term; as mentioned above if you had level staked golf place and snooker model your profits would be close to our staking plan figures. How do I set stakes? When I started out as tipster and membership was small, we did exploit opportunities on Gillis in 2018 as mentioned above. The problem nowadays is that if I go 0.5 each way at 176.00 the firms will move that price so quickly the staking becomes untenable for us all to get our money down. Likewise on the golf place model if I suggest 0.8 at 26.00 because clinically I know it is nearer 6.00 in actual price we are mainly going to be matched at somewhere between 13.00 and 17.00 which means a lesser stake to 0.5 to fit perceived value therefore I will reduce my stake to fit the greater good.
If you choose to level stake all selections I suggest if you have £10 on snooker bet, then have £10 golf place and £5 each way (harder to get anymore on if selection is 151.00+) on all snooker and golf Outrights or the comparative level to your bankroll.
Personally, I will continue to set the staking plan despite 2020 being the first year my bigger stake selections on snooker and golf Outrights flopped. That said, the golf place models when we went in heavy did yield better than previous years. Therefore, one year is a small sample in the grand scheme of things and another year’s information will tell us more.
Hopefully you all have a good healthy Christmas and New Year with your loved ones because after all that’s what matters. It’s been nice to have a break and a chance to review and I’m looking forward to a healthy and wealthy 2021.

Championship League
A shot in the arm for so many that live televised sport is back on Monday in the form of the Championship League. World Snooker deserve the plaudits for being pro-active and Stealing a march on their rivals. Extensive ITV coverage will enhance the otherwise low-key reputation of the Championship League, the format now takes on a similar shape to ITVs British Gold Cup/Yamaha Organs Trophy that became the International Masters in the 1980s. While the prize money probably doesn’t excite the leading players’, they have been quick to support the event which can only add to the kudos of the event. The lower-ranked players will be thankful for an opportunity to earn sooner rather than later in an event that with qualification for the Champion of Champions means the winner’s purse is nearer £50,000 and potentially career-changing.
For five years in, the 80s the event consisted of best of 3 frame format matches before the latter stages and noticeably Steve Davis domination of the sport continued as he managed to win three from four that he competed in. The other two champions were Ray Reardon and Alex Higgins proving that despite the format, class rose to the top. When comparing the two we remember snooker back in the 80s lacked the strength in depth of the modern game however, during these events there were several shocks. Yorkshireman, John Dunning reached the final at the age of 57 while other veterans such as Dave Martin, Ray Edmonds and Doug French became adept at beating their higher-ranked opponents in the format.
For this reason, it becomes impossible to conclusively say that any player has no chance at the group stage while becoming quite the opposite. Should a lower-ranked professional play a match near his potential under the television lights this will immediately increase his confidence while of course should he play poorly the momentum and confidence could evaporate for the day. Momentum will be the key ingredient and should the higher-ranked players find it early in the group they have potential to steamroller given their experience under the television lights. The beauty of the format, however, is one major upset against the group favourite and all the others will fancy their chances of progressing which can quickly bring about the domino effect.
The group stages are extensively covered by ITV so I expect there will be plenty to learn in running and value bets to be found
Group A
Stuart Bingham – Will love the format and if he finds his momentum, he has the look of a player likely to win the tournament if he gets on a roll.
Ricky Walden – Not to be overlooked with his experience and fluent style. Fits the category of a veteran who could flourish in format.
Jordan Brown – Slow burner but already beaten Stuart Bingham and David Gilbert twice in the current season. Potentially an awkward opponent in group stages.
Jamie Clarke – Outsider in the group whose best results have come in the Shootout so could inflict an upset or two.
No bet

Group B
Judd Trump – A strong favourite even in this format
Daniel Wells – Performed well before under television lights reaching semi-final of the Scottish Open last season.
Elliot Slessor – Two Career victories over Ronnie O’Sullivan and could easily be the one to beat Judd Trump if anyone can
David Grace – Like Wells he has proven ability to play under televised conditions from his UK Championship semi-final appearance a few years ago.
Elliott Slessor at 12.00 (Betfred) or in his match v Judd Trump worth considering.

Group C
Michael Holt – Won the Shootout, an event he is well suited too and I expect this format and his new-found confidence look perfectly matched.
Mark Davis – Experienced sort who will flourish if he can get a few wins under his belt.
Mark Joyce – A player who impresses me when he reaches the television stages.
Louis Heathcote – Made an impressive start to his rookie season and a potential wildcard for the group.
A trappy group with Holt a deserving favourite but no bet. Holt is worth considering each way at 201.00 (Boylesports)

Group D
Joe Perry – Model professional who will be suited by the event if he finds his fluency.
Mark King – Northern Ireland Open winner and probably suited by pressurised format.
Sam Baird – Had a poor season but the three-month break can only help him clear his mind and re-set.
Harvey Chandler – Has promise but overall found life difficult as a professional. Could easily upset anyone at the group stage.
No bet

Group E
Mark Selby – Has performed superbly in the short format home nations events this season.
Liang Wenbo – Having a season of consolidation and gradually re-building his confidence looking through his results.
Joe O’Connor – Last season’s Rookie of the Year has struggled this season. Nothing unusual for a promising player to have a poor second season and not live up to expectations. This is a perfect opportunity to get back on track.
Lee Walker – Experienced journeyman professional who reminded fans what he is capable of by beating Judd Trump at the English Open. Not to be overlooked in the group stage matches.
No bet

Group F
Ali Carter – Gritty competitor who can never be discounted
Matt Selt – Winner of last year’s Indian Open who is always difficult to beat.
Sam Craigie – Having a poor season and failing to build on a good 2018/2019. Remains respected when his confidence returns
Dominic Dale – Just the type of experienced player to flourish in the format.
Wide Open group that Dale could have a say in but at his price it’s no bet.

Group G
Barry Hawkins – Having a poor season and the break should have allowed him to clear his cluttered mind.
Anthony McGill – I did think he was starting to return to his best before the break and a dark horse in all markets.
Craig Steadman – Will be there to pick up the pieces if the higher ranked players struggle.
Hammad Miah – Struggled all season and in need of a confidence boost.
A no bet group although McGill could be a dark horse in the outrights at 151.00 (Boylesports)

Group H
Jimmy Robertson – Winner of last season’s European Masters who has plenty of televised experience.
Ben Woollaston – Consistent fluent sort who could be well suited by the format.
Liam Highfield – His break-building stats indicated he had improved slightly this season so the perfect opportunity to prove that.
Alexander Ursenbacher – Plays well in short format home nations events who can go deep when he finds his momentum.
An impossible task to find the winner of this group with all players capable of going further should they progress.

Group I
Jack Lisowski – Obvious chance if he finds his momentum.
Luca Brecel – Exactly same comments apply as above.
Robbie Williams – Grinds away well and beat John Higgins in German Masters so the dark horse of the group if the favourites don’t fire.
Oliver Lines – Had a poor season but if he has cleared his mind remains a player of potential who on his day could win his group matches.
Robbie Williams opened at 8.00 for the group and I think the best now is 6.50 which still has a tad of potential should the two favourites be slow out of the blocks.

Group J
Ronnie O’Sullivan – A brilliant pro-am and short format player who has often found it has the affect of focusing his attention.
Chris Wakelin – The sort of player who will be around if the others play below par.
Michael Georgeiu – A momentum player as illustrated by his shootout win of 2018 and remains dangerous in this format.
Kishan Hirani – Struggled all season but could still cause opponents problems.
Ronnie plays well when returning fresh from a break but Michael Georgeiu could be dangerous if Ronnie has an unexpected loss.

Group K
Mark Allen – Happy to have had a break from the sport having looked fatigued since the UK Championship.
Martin O’Donnell – Martin is a proper grinder who will make the game difficult for his opponents.
Michael White – I was taken with his quarter final in the UK Championship reminding everyone what a fluent high-class player the Welshman still is. We know he liked the Shootout so this format will suit if he gets his tail up.
Nigel Bond – The UK Championship also reminded everyone that Nigel Bond could still play and he is just the sort of veteran to prosper.
I definetly like opposing the two favourites in this group with Michael White (6.00) and possibly Nigel Bond.

Group L
Kyren Wilson – Of all the top players I reckon Kyren Wilson will be the best prepared.
Ryan Day – Out of form but a momentum player if he can get some confidence building wins in the bank.
Alfie Burden – Without doubt a Masterchef candidate but not to be overlooked in this format where his relaxed style could be an advantage.
Chen Feilong – Cannot overlook anyone in the group stages but looks to have a mighty task.
Kyren Wilson looks a strong favourite but no bet at price.

Group M
David Gilbert – Fluent sort who will be suited by format if he is timing the ball well.
Stuart Carrington – Local lad to me and very capable as his results have proved.
Jak Jones – Had a good season and awkward opponent.
Jackson Page – A fluent player who appears capable of better.
Wide open group with perhaps Jak Jones a shred of value at 8.50.

Group N
Gary Wilson – Should be suited by this format and looks a strong group favourite.
Matthew Stevens – High-class performer who could be suited by tournament if he has been practising.
John Astley – Respected but has little television experience.
Mitchell Mann – Seems to be back close to his best after struggling with his mental wellbeing. Capable of a shock win or two during the group stage.
Gary Wilson a strong group favourite but his price is poor however at 81.00 this fluent Geordie who is comfortable on television looks overdue a breakthrough.

Group O
Tom Ford – Inconsistent but high-quality performer when he gets it right.
Rob Milkins – Re-building his game in recent months with encouraging results to help. If he could negotiate the group 301.00 would not look too bad.
Mike Dunn – His experience could serve him well in the format if he can remain competitive.
Ian Burns – Opened at 8.00 which I thought was too big for the group and thus I took some. Beat Judd Trump just before Christmas.
A group where the favourites could be caught cold and anything over 6.00 on Ian Burns could be worth a small bet.

Group P
Neil Robertson – Obvious chances
Kurt Maflin – 7.00 looked a tad big for Maflin given he should be suited be format.
Ken Doherty – Do not overlook the Irishman who will be suited by television coverage.
Ashley Carty – A big ask but a player capable of big breaks who has potential on his day.
Difficult to go against Neil Robertson but should he lose a match Kurt Maflin at 7.00 is tad of value with Ken Doherty not overlooked.

Outright
Judd Trump, Ronnie O’Sullivan and Neil Robertson will be hard to stop in the later stages should they find their momentum. Gary Wilson 81.00, Michael Holt 201.00, Michael White 301.00, Anthony McGill 151.00 and Rob Milkins 301.00 are five random darts worth considering to small stakes.
Overall though it will be great to have competitive snooker back so keep stakes small while learning who is playing well for a few in-play bets.

Dear snooker member,

The three quarter finals left look difficult to bet on. We do have Bingtao effectively to win at 8.00 for his quarter.  Murphy (13.00) scraped through yesterday to play Allen.  Joining Bingtao (51.00) leaving us in a promising each-way outright position.

Selby v Maguire

Looks a match to swerve between two generally inconsistent performers this season. Both have had a few great tournaments this season but also a few more abject displays than ideal.

Perry v Bingtao

First time these two have ever played, Perry has the experience of playing in the televised/main table on Tuesday. Overall Perry has a below average record in quarter finals however, I was surprised to see his price open 2.20. Possibly the bookies now over reacting after all season under rating Bingtao. There is also ranking connotations for both players in this match to consider not that I expect either to have an adverse reaction.
Generally a difficult match to call. I will hedge our Bingtao quarter bet if he gets in front (in-play telegram channel).

Murphy v Allen

I will be back with my thoughts on this match tomorrow because today’s results may have a bearing on Allen’s mindset and whether or not we have a bet.

Trump v Holt

Interesting match up with Holt having a few results over the years. If Holt was to win I would expect it to be easy but no –1.5 on Alternate handicap available. Trump is sometimes a slow starter to events especially in matches he is expected to win. The handicap line at +3.5 looks fine for, a full of confidence, Holt to cover.

Ding v Maguire, Selby v Williams, Higgins v Dott

All three look impossible with generally inconsistent performers lately and prices spot on. Ding threatened to play well at Welsh until they stuck him on a side table. Dott missing last week is a concern I didnt anticipate.

Robertson v Perry

Not sure what to make of Robertson, at his best sublime but I cannot feel sympathy for ‘fatigue card’ he played at Welsh and would have played at Grand Prix if Holt had beaten him in their opening match. If he was a golfer he would have transatlantic flights to endur (they never bleat). If he is vulnerable and to have an ‘off day’ it will be in this match maybe against a player who ‘knows the time of day’ like Perry, plus Perry is overdue a win in their match ups.

Murphy v Gilbert

Tough match for Murphy, winner could easy make the semi-final and in Murphy’s case, win the title.

Allen v Theppy

Allen’s pre Christmas form has left him and looks vulnerable to a a player who has beat him on several occasion’s.

Wilson v Bingtao

Bingtao continues to be underratted and over priced. This match is a perfect example, nearer a coin flip or Kyren as slight favourite.

Snooker Betting Predictions and Tips

MASTERS

January 12-19

Alexandra Palace, London

The first snooker tournament of 2020 is the prestigious Masters which makes up the third part in snooker’s Triple Crown with the UK Championship and World Championship.  This is an elite invitation tournament for the top 16 in the world rankings at the completion of the UK Championship in early December 2019.  With £250,000 first prize and £15,000 for an invitation, it is an event that player’s clamber to make.  This year, however, seven times champion Ronnie O’Sullivan has decided to refuse the invite opening up an extra spot for Ali Carter who was ranked 17^th and giving a different and more open dimension to the event.

Draw:

Judd Trump v Shaun Murphy

Ding Junhui v Joe Perry

Mark Selby v Ali Carter

John Higgins v Barry Hawkins

Neil Robertson v Stephen Maguire

Mark Allen v David Gilbert

Kyren Wilson v Jack Lisowski

Mark Williams v Stuart Bingham

Betting Predictions and Tips

Judd Trump is the defending champion and number one seed having beating Ronnie O’Sullivan in last year’s final.  Last year’s win was the launching pad for a superb 2019 that saw Trump become World Champion for the first time.  With five other tournament wins Trump has an impressive lead at the top of the world rankings and the ‘man to beat’ this week.  He does have an extremely difficult opening match against 2015 champion, Shaun Murphy who was back his brilliant best, winning the China Championship after two other runner-up finishes in the Asian swing in the early months of the world snooker 2019/2020 season.  The winner of that match will probably face another tough task against China’s Ding Junhui who emerged from a two-year slump by winning the UK Championship in December.  He too is a previous Masters champion back in 2011 and was a semi-finalist last year. The Chinese superstar is a player who needs confidence and one of the few players with a good head to head record against Judd Trump.  Happily, my subscribers are on Ding Junhui at 34.00 from December and have great value but don’t be mistaken this section is the most difficult by far.  Joe Perry made the final at Alexandra Palace the last time he played and has beaten Ding twice in the Masters.  Perry may be the outsider of the section, but those facts combined with an ability to play well versus Trump and Ding he could play a factor.

Without doubt, the top half of the draw is the hardest with another former champion, Mark Selby looking back to his best in recent months by winning two home nations events, the English Open and the Scottish Open just three weeks ago.  In 2008 Selby, remarkably won the first of his three Masters titles on debut and with his other wins in 2010 and 2013 he also had two runner-up finishes to mean he competed in five finals in a seven-year period by 2014.  Surprisingly he has not made a semi-final in the last five years and looks overdue.

The bottom half has Neil Robertson leading the way after a superb 2018/2019 season saw him catapult back into the top 4 having dropped out of the elite top 16 a year earlier.  The 2019/2020 season has been poor for the Australian in ranking tournaments but did win the invitation Champion of Champions tournament in a final of the highest quality against Judd Trump.  He has an awkward first-round match against a rejuvenated Stephen Maguire to negotiate.  The winner of Robertson/Maguire will play Mark Allen or this year’s debutant David Gilbert.  It is a tall order for a debutant to win the Masters and Gilbert is not a proven winner despite being superb all year.  Mark Allen though was the 2018 Masters champion and has six semi-final appearances in nine tournaments this 2019/2020 campaign.  He will be hard to beat and the winner of this quarter will be favourite in the semi-final against a weak looking quarter 4.

The weak-looking quarter 4 sees 2018 runner-up Kyren Wilson play Scottish Open runner up Jack Lisowski while double Masters champion, Mark Williams plays Stuart Bingham.  Jack Lisowski looks the only in-form player in this segment and should improve on last year’s nervous Masters’ debut.  One noticeable fact about Lisowski is his ability to lose in the early stages of ranking tournaments to older journeyman pros while his multiple positive head to head records against many of the top players.  Possibly the logic is that playing the best players frees him up to go for his shots and no doubt if they go in at the Alexandra Palace the crowd will get behind the talented left-hander.

In summary, Mark Selby and Mark Allen are three solid bets to win their respective quarters while Lisowski looks the value from the weakest quarter.

Sunday 12^th January, 13:00

Ding Junhui v Joe Perry

Betting Odds: Junhui 1.45, Perry 3.10

Head to Head: 16-6

This year’s tournament leads off on the afternoon of Sunday the 12^th January with 2011 champion Ding Junhui playing Joe Perry.

Ding Junhui won his third UK Championship in December and re-established his credentials at the top of the sport.  He had been in a slump for over two seasons since losing to Mark Selby in the 2017 World Snooker Championship semi-final.  In 2016 he also suffered a close loss in the 2016 World Snooker Championship final to the same player and possibly fell out of love with the game.  Having followed his UK Championship win with many impressive wins at the Scottish Open and overseas qualifying he arrives at Alexandra Palace with a new impetus in his career and is amongst the leading contenders for the title.

Gentleman Joe Perry will be no easy match for the Chinese superstar after his last Masters appearance in 2017 resulted him losing to Ronnie O’Sullivan in the final.  Perry is one of the most performers on the circuit and regularly proves his ability to mix it with the very best.  To illustrate that he has beat reigning world champion and world number one twice in just over a year while also making the final at last season’s European Masters.

Like always at the Masters there are no easy matches with only the world’s top 16 invited.  This has potential to be a high-quality opening for the event and these two players have an interesting history at the event.  Ding Junhui won their first encounter at this great championship but surprisingly to many Perry has won their two most recent matches here.  At first glance of their head to head it would be understandable to think to expect Ding to justify favouritism but at Alexandra Palace, Perry raises his game.

In that knowledge we will concentrate on the break markets and despite the opening frames on a new cloth being awkward with the cushions sliding it does however, make the pockets play slightly easier the longer the match progresses.

If Bet365 put up no centuries in frame 1-4 close to the start it is worth a small bet at 1.80+.  Long term members will know it is a market we target here and the World Championship winning on the last six occasions.

Sunday 12th January

Mark Selby v Ali Carter

Betting Odds: Mark Selby 1.44, Ali Carter 3.30

Head to Head: 19-12

Mark Selby has a superb record at the Masters winning on three occasions, on debut in 2007, then 2009 and 2012.  It is a while since he featured prominently in the tournament and maybe this is the year, he wins a fourth title having rediscovered his best form in recent months winning the English and Scottish Open’s.

The Captain, Ali Carter was the grateful and unlikely recipient from the withdrawal of his arch adversary Ronnie O’Sullivan.  Always one of the toughest match-players on the snooker circuit Carter has been grinding wins all season without reaching the later stages of tournaments.  His last final was at the start of 2019 at the Coral Grand Prix.

There is a match to like in this match and that is to exploit Ali Carter who in recent months has been starting matches slowly only winning frame 1 on one occasion in his last seven matches.  Paddy Power have Mark Selby to win frame 1 and the match at 2.00 which looks a solid bet for those who can otherwise concentrate on Selby to win frame 1 at 1.60+.

Recommended Snooker Bets

Mark Selby – to win frame 1 and the match @ 2.00 (1/1) Paddy Power

Monday 13^th January

Neil Robertson v Stephen Maguire

Betting Odds: Neil Robertson 1.33, Stephen Maguire 3.60

Head to Head: 10-16

Australian, Neil Robertson attempts to win his second Masters title this year having won the first one ever at Alexandra Palace in 2012.  He has managed two runner-up finishes since and last year lost in the semi-final to eventual champion, Judd Trump.  After a superb 2018-2019 season that saw Robertson rise back to sport’s highest echelons the current season in ranking tournaments has been a disaster.  Missing his flight to the season opening Riga Masters when he was defending champion seems to have set the precedent for what was to come.  In the Champion of Champions however he did find the previous season’s form beating Ronnie O’Sullivan and Judd Trump in scintillating fashion a couple of months ago to remind us his best is not far away.

Four times Stephen Maguire has made the semi-final at the Masters, the last of which was in 2014.  This season has been a significant improvement for the Scot having taken ownership of a shared practice facility with friends John Higgins and Anthony McGill.  He won the World Cup with Higgins then won the Six Reds World Championship followed by reaching the final of the UK Championship, amassing over £300,000 in the process.

An interesting matchup when you consider Maguire holds a surprising head to head advantage, primarily accumulated in their early careers’ when Maguire won their opening six encounters.  For those reasons we can expect a good showing from Maguire guaranteeing a high-quality match with plenty of breaks.