Yan Bingtao v Hossein Vafaei
This match has a very similar dynamic as the previous one without the head to head dynamic.
Yan Bingtao was an impressive Masters champion last year adding to his already impressive CV from the previous year.
That highlight shone bright for the talented precocious talent from China in last year’s season when he came unstuck on many occasions in the other events and particularly best of 7s.
In the snooker world it’s become impossible to see future world champions like days of yore but Bingtao looks one to me. His no frills deadpan Matchplay style looks perfect for the longer formats of the game where he wears down the opponent similar to Mark Selby and Kyren Wilson. Like those two however, he’s a little more vulnerable in best of 7 without them explosives spells of form that the likes of Judd Trump and Jack Lisowski utilise to put their matches to bed in less than half an hour.
This makes him vulnerable tomorrow morning against Hossein Vafaei, a similar no frills player but in seemingly better form at the moment. Vafaei comes from a tough upbringing in Iran that is likely to serve him well as he carves out a career. That career is already underrated by bookmakers despite several semi finals and deep runs. Importantly, he’s not the sort of player to be overawed as he proved against Judd Trump in the Welsh Open.
The clincher for a bet here is that Yan Bingtao is coming under a world of pressure with his world ranking plummeting despite winning the Masters. So much so that unless he breaks his cycle of poor form he may fall out of the top 16 and even the top 32. Psychologically that has to be at the back of his mind, I do think he will pull out of this nose dive by winning or going deep in several events but for tomorrow match he’s got an extremely difficult opener.
If Bingtao was in his best form, I would only make him the price that the bookmakers have opened but with all those dynamics applied, I don’t make him much better than a slight favourite tomorrow. Plenty of 13/8 around and I’ve already been matched on exchanges above 2.90+
0.2 Hossein Vafaei to beat Yan Bingtao 7/4 (2.75) upwards, 0.1 below
