Craig Edwards' Snooker and Golf Blog

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Odds settlement

As my service moves forward, I always endeavour to improve, so on my spreadsheet, I have now added an extra column called “advised odds”.  This fits between “settled odds” and “min odds”.

This should explain the process of settling better particularly for snooker bets sent via email and prices they are settled at.

Sometimes snooker bets in the opening rounds can be sent anything from fourteen to one days in advance and this can create problems when the market fluctuates in that interim period before the match.  I repeatedly make reference to the fact, that when a price is taken early at b365 there is always the option to cash out and take bigger prices in that period.  Of course, the biggest volume of snooker bets is indeed in the opening rounds when we have more edge on the firms.

To help explain how the process is a difficult one to pin down completely accurately, let’s take a look at this week’s bet for Matt Selt to beat Mark Selby as it’s fresh in our memories.  I would normally have sent New Years Eve when the market first went up and indeed put the bet in my draft emails to go once the bank holiday period ended.
So when I sent bet on Monday lunchtime 24 hours prior, a quick search of odds saw four firms and b365 offering 2/1 while William Hill and a couple of ponzi books went 21/10.
Upon sending, b365 chopped quickly to 7/4 and only a few of their subs got on at 2/1 with that firm.  That said many subs did indeed get on 21/10 WH, or 2/1 VC or Parimatch (counted as one), Unibet, Spin or Betfred and thank you by the way for taking the trouble to answer my email as to the price you got.  On occasion, if I have not been around to be able to follow the market, I may ask those questions before settling especially as oddschecker is poor these days, and hopeless if you try and go further back than 24 hours.

From that response, it would be fairer to settle the bet at 15/8 In the “settled odds” column while having 2/1 as “best odds” and 7/4 as “minimum odds”.

B365 have always been the firm that I use for bet settlement unless two decent firms price higher but in this case they undoubtedly, moved their price too quickly.  Over the years as a “rule of thumb” I have wanted b365 to stand the price for 20 minutes worst case scenario.  That said, most times unless I have a spy, the prices last sometimes the full day, certainly hours over minutes.

My hope that by putting in the third column for all bets whether golf or snooker, it will improve the imperfect method of settling bets.

David Gilbert v Zhou Yuelong
Hard to pick the winner here, prices look spot on, unless nerves play apart. it should be a high-quality match with plenty of breaks. Yuelong 100s maybe at odds against worth an interest

Mark Selby v Neil Robertson
How times have changed between these two as Selby has been matched as high as 2.60 on the exchanges. Certainly, if you can get 2.50 upwards, I would have a few bob on Selby who looks to be working his way back to form. I have not been as taken as some with Robbo’s form this week, he’s looked below his best into the middle pockets, at times manoeuvring his shot selection to avoid them. He is the best player in the world on sheer standard of play for the past two seasons, he has probably played a couple of blacks better then all players but as we’ve seen, that’s not always enough in snooker. I do think, however, that Robertson is deliberately under prepparing himself with the triple crowns taking precedence in his mind.

Mark Allen v Mark Williams
I figured Mark Allen would be favourite for this match, and at the prices you could take him. He started the event a fair bit shorter than MJW. If this was the final, I would prefer MJW but at this stage, at the prices, I prefer Allen.

Anthony McGill v Lyu Haotian
If Haotian had been 2.60+ he would have been a bet, his upswing in form from Gibraltar has been sustained play at a new level. McGill assassinated Bingtao for us after Yan took him a little easy. Silly boy! McGill is a hardened performer at all levels, yan got what he deserved.

Outrights
From ranking perspective, tournament wins for Gilbert, Yuelong or McGill would catch my eye. they all need good seasons to make the top 16, and because of the unfair format you cannot win the World Championship from outside of the 16.
Yuelong and McGill, I like as future World Champions while Gilbert is capable of a deep run there.

If you want a bet, maybe ew small Haotian at 21.00.

No official bets today, just my thoughts as I cannot watch the action and I have my graduation (at my age, yes, I know, but just looking forward to catching up with family and friends).

A slew of snooker action to come with barely a day off until Christmas so if you have a bet keep stakes very small.

Snooker Recap and Plan going forward

It’s been nice to have a little time off snooker and important I took the opportunity to review 2022 which has been poor upto now.
If you managed to get on Perry for quarter, Bingtao each way in German, Walker in Seniors and poach a bet on Vafaei in Shootout, you will still be easily in profit.
Four decent winners in outright and compare that to 2021 which saw no outright wins but ROI over 20% it comes as a shock.
Of course, it’s fine margins and quickly strengths can turn into a weakness. With any kind of decent form on the match betting in 2022 we would have been the ROI we expect.
The World Championship was the only event where the results were acceptable. Having best of 11 frames upwards helped in hindsight when used in conjunction of the knowledge that the last two World Championships and UK Championships which have been extremely profitable. Similarly, long frame format but those results have contrarily exposed a leak from me in 2022.
Long-term members will know we went to higher volume post Covid-19 in 2020 and hit the ground running when cleaning up in UK Championship but also the 100-break rate improved markedly at Milton Keynes, and we jumped on the bandwagon all season (took 365 a long time to adjust).
2021 like mentioned was super solid on matches (my best year) and undoubtedly this can create bad habits and maybe because the 2021 UK Championship was so good, it hid a few deficiencies appearing in my perming.
When a money line is set wrong in my opinion and we have a margin on the player we like, we step in. Of course, during that good run, we would back money line, handicap, high break scorer and player centuries as their prices were generically inflated to acceptable levels.
In hindsight, the problem came when we stepped in betting 3 and 4 markets in one match outside best of 11-frame format.
For the immediate future, any time we bet 3 markets plus in a match, the match will need to be best of 11 frames or longer. This will allow me to continue this period of self-reflection, and critique while we ease into the season whittling down to best market or two when prices allow. The old approach will only be trusted in the longer format for the time at UK Championship.
Betting and tipping demands, a constant introspection of one’s-self and in perspective, I had a similar poor six months at the start of 2019. So as much as we always thing we have the answers, it’s such a fluid process that all we can ever do is plan short term while being flexible enough to know results never matter in the short term.
What we think is a decent sample, can be non-descript in the future as sample gets bigger.
This leads me onto QSCHOOL which was a leak from me. The firms (especially b365) covered it comprehensively but only on the money line. Whether by design (I doubt but compiler is decent at 365), this left us one option and not having choice of handicap particularly and high break scorer hurt us. Hopefully, b365 cover it well again in the future and there may be a huge flipside for us if they do, with lessons learnt and kinder variance.
That said, we are on a run of losing fourteen from the last fifteen deciders so well below variance which although is hard to take, is just variance and vindication in small matter given we can expect 40% win-rate on deciders worst case scenario.

I’ve been lucky on one certain level to other tipsters and that’s my ability to cover two sports. They’ve complemented each other perfectly over 4 ½ years and for all my analysis, when snooker was poor for 6 months in 2019, golf went through the roof. Likewise, when golf was at it’s least profitable in 2020, snooker profits were the best ever.
It’s always a short-term problem if you only bet one sport or the other so it hurts more, but long-term profits are only thinks we have modicum of control over.

Dear snooker member,

Yan Bingtao’s defeat was a disappointing end for our outright, especially given we may never get those prices again and it’s been a solid four weeks betting profit that it would have been nice to put the cherry on with our big ante post bet. Certainly, cannot be unhappy how he played, he lost to the man of the tournament so far. Mark Williams is running for us still in our “winning quarter” bet and if he beats Judd, I would expect him to beat John Higgins but equally I would expect him to lose to Ronnie.

At the semi-final stage, bar Neil Robertson and Zhao Xintong, the four players are the other best players of the season and all proven former champions. It should be a feast of top-class snooker to end what has been a superb World Championship.

Judd Trump v Mark Williams

These two have crossed swords an awful lot in short format snooker but barely played any big matches, of the 27 times they’ve played I can only find two what I would call ‘matches of significance and won one each. Trump is dominant in the head-to-head by 18-9 but with so much best of 5 and 7, he’s bound to be.
Judd has a remarkable constitution for the battle in the last four years and that has served him well here, getting to the semi-finals with his C game. Noticeably, his best session in his last two matches was his last when it mattered most. Our outright McGill, lost little in defeat of their last session and threw the kitchen sink at him why he ran with the momentum against Bingham. That match, I expected Bingham to wilt late on so it was a shame for our handicap bet that traded at 1.10 or less at 8-5. I wouldn’t expect MJW to wilt the same and Judd will need to play to a higher-level, early doors, I imagine but he likely will.
On the snooker both have produced so far you could make an argument for Mark to win the opening session today at circa 2/1 and the match but I prefer to watch and enjoy given how much Judd has raised his game throughout his career at the later stages of events.

Ronnie O’Sullivan v John Higgins

I know long term members would have been expecting this bet, in the four years of my service it’s one we’ve taken several times except the one occasion Higgins was the fav. In that time, it’s only lost once and throughout my lifetime at prices 11/8 and above, often near 2/1 Higgins is always a bet. The matchup is a coin-flip pure and simple, in fact, John has much the better of their ‘matches of importance’ and could be theorized as favourite. Public money always talks though and Ronnie’s fans and cult followers, will bet him at any number. Ronnie has done what he had too, all event well and looks in a good place but his price has regressed ridiculously compared to the rest. John has looked a little off at times but that is to be expected after his Tour Championship reverse. Last night’s win must be like a shot in the arm having lost so many close ones and the way he closed it out will help him. Because of Ronnie’s brilliance, all your choices as a player are simple ones, you have to play well in your own mind. John has responded to this challenge on numerous occasions and it actually appears to switch him off a little. Flip side of that is Ronnie has huge respect for John, some would say, too much.
Ronnie could easily win but at the prices it’s a +EV situation we always exploit as bet sent last night.
I half expect John to have a great session tonight and 6-2 score line or better is possible in my mind if you want some small stakes interest, John Higgins might provide it. If John gets a long way in front we may hedge.

The season is over for the main tour but in the next 3 to 4 weeks there is he World Seniors and QSchool for us

I think we have the prospect of one of the most exciting renewals of the World Snooker Championship ahead of us at the Crucible Theatre in Sheffield for the next seventeen days.
Rightly, Neil Robertson enters as favourite having been the best player in the world since winning the 2020 UK Championship. His recent struggles in winning a second World Championship are charted but this event is on the tip of his cue if he plays like he has, and can sustain it.
Judd Trump similarly has question marks to answer but he’s looked far from his best and he will need to play his way into form during the event.
Ronnie O’Sullivan has been consistent all season, yes, his game is on the decline slightly, but it was in 2020 when he last won and if he has a good frame of mind a seventh title is a realistic goal.
Hard to know how Mark Selby is feeling about playing but either way, his lack of recent match practice will make him nervous and potentially vulnerable early doors. There’s never been a tougher competitor at the Crucible so if he plays his way back into form and confidence, no one, would want to draw him.
John Higgins has been a new man all season and if it wasn’t for attacks of ‘clinchers disease’ in three finals he would have been second favourite. He’s liable to start slowly after the disappointment of the Tour Championship final but if he does, more potential heartache is around the corner with another runner up slot awaiting the Scot.
We have the younger brigade from China taking centre stage with Zhao Xintong and Yan Bingtao. If either, falls in love with playing snooker at the Crucible, longer format matches likely suit them better.
Kyren Wilson seems ideally suited by the demands of the World Championship but in harsh truth hasn’t won a decent event since the 2019 German Masters. He has pulled Ding Junhui in round one, but I believe he needs to win good matches against top players for his confidence to return so if he wins it could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

I was talking to my tipping friend Ciaran and said the overall profiles of the qualifiers disappointed from a tipping perspective but remarkably all, but two qualifiers have drawn a range of seeds that I would have cherry picked for them.
Jamie Jones is twice a quarter finalist and last season made the last 16 here and is a tough enough cookie to not make Mark Selby’s introduction to competitive snooker easy. I rarely play odds on but the handicap looks solid.
Attending the qualifiers with my good friend and snooker tipping guru, George Weyham I am well aware how well Chris Wakelin played to beat Jimmy Robertson. Yan Bingtao isn’t the most intimidating of opponents for the lower ranked making Wakelin a live prospect if he reproduces the form that he produced here against Judd Trump a few years ago.
Head to head matters less these days, unless it’s skewed one way or the other and Michael White has drawn Mark Williams, a player he has an impressive head to head against. On his return to the Crucible White will be another live dog if he settles down early into the match.
Watching Jackson Page in qualifying with my friend George, I couldn’t help but be impressed by his performance against David Grace. If he was to reproduce against Barry Hawkins he would have a chance but it’s always a big ‘if’ on Crucible debut. Exciting talent but Hawkins is a Crucible specialist in good form.
Ding Junhui has pulled event specialist Kyren Wilson in the tie of the round. Whoever wins will have a shot of confidence at the right time and will have a live chance of reaching the semi final. To get further than the semi final is close to impossible for all qualifiers given the build up of mental fatigue in a short space of time.
Lyu Haotian was impressive in qualifying for the second year in succession. Having won a match previously at the Crucible he’s a live underdog against former champion, Stuart Bingham.
Liam Highfield like Wakelin has drawn a player that’s unlikely to intimidate him and could be live against Anthony McGill who needs to find his best form at the Crucible, but we know he can.
Hossein Vafaei makes his debut in a match up he could win against Judd Trump having dealt with the 2019 champion a few times before. His comments about Ronnie O’Sullivan are likely poor timing and will distract him from the more important job at hand. Shame because this was a perfect draw for the Iranian on debut.
Ashley Hugill has finally found his form on the Tour and his reward or poison chalice on debut is Neil Robertson. Hugill will need an early foothold to get over the nerves of a debut and a one sided defeat awaits if he doesn’t. If he was to play his way into the match the pressure would transfer to Robertson but again it’s a huge if. 16/1 seems too big if he does and it’s cheap to find out at the price. Stranger things have happened at the Crucible over the years.
Matthew Stevens put up a superb display to oust Ali Carter 10-8 from 4-0 behind. It’s hard to trust the ageing former runner up to reproduce but if he did, he would have the measure of Jack Lisowski.
Thepchiaya un Nooh never gets easy draws at the Crucible and this year is no different with John Higgins. John may be slow out of the blocks after the disappointment of the Tour Championship final and if the talented Thai gets into his flow he could be dangerous.
Noppon Saenghkam impressed here in 2020 when losing to Mark Selby in the last 16, 13-12. He has been in good form all season and the draw has been kind to him. Luca Brecel has yet to win a match at the Crucible and until he does, he will be vulnerable despite a brilliant season.
Stephen Maguire looks a bad draw for Shaun Murphy who has been out of form all season. Beset by off the table problems, Murphy will struggle to hold a sharp Maguire unless the Crucible lifts his spirits, which it did last year.
Jamie Clarke is potentially an awkward match for the young Chinese player to negotiate if he gets a foothold. Clarke has won a match at the Crucible which Xintong is yet to.
Scott Donaldson is one of two poor match ups for the qualifiers as he attempts to overturn a 1-7 head to head with Mark Allen. He is playing well enough and we’ve seen the effects Allen’s off table problems have had.
David Gilbert like Donaldson has pulled a wicked match up against Ronnie O’Sullivan who dominates their head to head 7-0. Still Dave is sharp and would benefit from a big match victory to lift his confidence at a venue he likes. Ronnie will need to be in a good frame of mind and there have been occasions here over the years when he hasn’t.

If you want to join my service for the bets we are having just for the World Championship at the one off price of £20 DM me on Twitter @EdwardsTips_ for more information.

Why did it take Ronnie O’Sullivan so long to win his first world title?

I think the clues to the answers as to why Robertson and Trump have poor records in the World Championship can be answered by what the sport’s GOAT endured to win his first world crown.  Throughout the years, O’Sullivan has been honest enough to say he finds little enjoyment in the 17-day marathon at the Crucible Theatre.  Despite his persona, Ronnie is cleverer than most observers realise and one of the shrewdest things he did early in his career was to enlist the help of a psychologist.  Whether on a conscious or subconscious level, the Rocket realised he needed help in mastering the marathon event, so finding someone to help him with the mental process was a wise move.  If that wasn’t enough, he approached Ray Reardon to be his mentor and confidante to help him through the Sheffield experience. Who better to have the ear of than the six-time world champion?

For over a decade since his first world title, Robertson has dominated World Snooker Tour events with a high level of consistency, accumulating his ranking title count to 22.  The problem is that for all his success in other ranking events, the Australian has not been close to adding another world crown since his 2010 win. 

Likewise, Trump won the 2019 WC and his final display against John Higgins was the most impressive I can ever remember.  That said, it took him the best part of a decade to reach a second world final after losing to Higgins in the 2011 trophy match.  Like Robertson, Trump had been perpetually a top-eight player during that time and the last three years have been impressive in his domination of the sport as world number one.

Maybe because Trump and Robertson reached world finals early in their career, it still hasn’t occurred to them that they aren’t ideally suited to the event.  It’s also feasible that they didn’t have Ronnie’s expectations for themselves but regardless, like all things in life, hindsight is easy.  That hindsight though brings a sample size to cast opinions and theories so as a bettor, when the WC comes round with Trump and Robertson at 3/1 (4.00) and 6/1 (7.00) respectively, they are the first names to be crossed off my list from an easy math perspective.  Whether right or wrong those are the facts of the matter.

Edwards Snooker Form 2022 (Craig Edwards)

#WorldSnookerChampionship #lovesnooker

I make this thread in the hope that snooker people start discussing the issues, not to fall out in any way.  They need discussing in my opinion to aid the sport in moving forward and growing, after all, rightly the World Championship is snooker’s flagship event.

Firstly, it has to be stated that I don’t say this to he controversial, I say it because I care and the sport needs to change so the World Championship is more symbiotic with the rest of the snooker season.

When I was a player, you’re brought up believing the World Championship is the ultimate test of a snooker player and that’s not wrong.  The hegemony that surrounds the sport of snooker though never talks of the unfairness of the event making this discussion taboo.

We have seen in recent months Zhao Xintong, Fan Zhengyi and Joe Perry all win events as outsiders at prices of 150/1 plus so this is the perfect opportunity to discuss the obvious inefficiencies.  Matt Selt might win today at 150/1 plus just to strengthen my case if indeed it needs any.

Yes, it’s the betting side of me that’s seen the unfairness of the World Championship and it’s time people discussed it without being vilified.  I too love the Crucible Theatre, one of my best life memories was playing there in 1991.  I know it’s special, I understand it’s sacrilege for many what I’m about to say.

Any player outside the top 16 has to win at least 16 extra frames let alone how many they need to compete in during the days leading up to the main event.  That added mental and physical fatigue in the narrow window of time drops their World Championship winning probability down markedly.

This means even if you asked Mark Selby at his very best to do it, his chance would be diluted out of all proportion from 5/1 to as much as 16/1 for arguments sake.

What other world class sport prejudices 87.5% of the players chances so poorly?  None is the answer and maybe because if they did, they aren’t or can’t be considered a sport on a world level or footing.

People instinctively, worry I want to take the event away from the Crucible Theatre but that’s not true, I just want an event fairer to all players chances.  That means if you keep at the Crucible Theatre you need 3 weeks over a slightly shorter format, yes, I know sacrilege to many but World Championship Snooker needs an even 64 player draw more than ever for natural growth.

I’ve not even discussed the ranking unfairness of the event to the snooker professionals but last year’s Gibraltar Open semi finalists received only 6,500 ranking points which illustrates the skew as profoundly as any argument can do.

Snooker lovers, whether players, commentators or fans just get talking and discussing to help make the Snooker World Championship fairer and in keeping with a great sport.

Cao Yupeng to beat Joe Perry 5/4 (2.25)
I have a feeling that when the main firm price up this match, Cao Yupeng will go off favourite. The bookmakers make Yupeng 100 points shorter in the outright market so go figure?
Either way, any odds against Cao Yupeng beating Joe Perry has to be snapped up for several reasons. To bullet point them, Yupeng is enjoying a far better season on his return to the tour and has accumulated twice as much prize money/ranking points. Yupeng’s break building has been far superior to his better-known opponent so any odds against about high break scorer may also be worth a modest bet.

Jamie Jones to beat Kyren Wilson 4/1 (5.00)
Over 7.5 frames Kyren Wilson v Jamie Jones 6/4 (2.50)
Having watched yesterday’s high-quality win over Zhou Yuelong in Welsh Open qualifying, I believe Jamie Jones will be in good spirits for a rematch of last season’s Scottish Open quarter-final. On that occasion, Jones run out an easy winner, though it’s fair to mention Kyren Wilson had suffered a serious car crash travelling to the match. Funnily enough, this week’s venue of MK arena in Milton Keynes is the same one, and Jamie Jones will be pleased to be returning to a favourite venue after a below-par season. Equally, it’s prudent to point out Jamie Jones could be suffering from Second Season Syndrome after last year’s superb return to the WST tour after suspension. Yes, we know he’s no rookie but he’s still likely to be susceptible to his expectations being elevated out of all normal proportions after an outstanding return to professional snooker. With a price as big as 4/1 (5.00) on Jamie Jones, I like to twin a bet on the total frames which is often more than the handicap price.

Nigel Bond to win frame 1 vs. Ronnie O’Sullivan @ 5/2 (3.50)
Nigel Bond +48.5 frame 1 Handicap @ 5/6 (1.83)
An interesting spot for a bet has popped up on my radar for Tuesday’s qualifying round between Ronnie O’Sullivan and Nigel Bond.
Ronnie O’Sullivan is a habitual slow starter these past couple of seasons and rather amazingly lost 66% (18 from 26) of frame 1s pre-Xmas of the 2020/2021 season. This trend looks to have continued somewhat in recent months as he prefers to leave his entry late into many venues. In Coventry, pre-Xmas when winning the Grand Prix, he famously nearly got penalised in an early round when enjoying afternoon Scones and Tea at the local cafe.
Alternatively, Nigel Bond still plays a mean game despite the advancing years and last week’s Welsh Open saw him quickly out of the blocks with a 50 break in frame 1 vs. Si Jiahui. Importantly, those years of experience will help the Matlock man if Ronnie O’Sullivan is a little lacklustre in frame 1. Split stakes between Frame 1 win at 15/8 (2.88) and the frame 1, handicap of +48.5 because although Ronnie leads their head-to-head 6-0, more importantly, this handicap bet would have been profitable on four of those occasions.

Snooker 2021

Lifetime: 2459 bets, 16.75% ROI

2021: 922 bets, 15.15% ROI

Please forgive me for completing the snooker review before next week’s finish but I don’t expect figures to be markedly worse.

The snooker model has delighted and frustrated me in equal measure during 2021.

Let’s get the frustration out of the way and that’s simply how poorly we’ve run variance/results wise in the outright markets.  In truth the previous 18 months was fantastic in snooker outrights while the previous 18 months to that was as frustrating as this current spell, though I’m hoping Xintong hitting in the UK Championship is the start of better form.  There’s no way of building up a big sample of bets quickly like at golf in snooker outright so all we can do is be patient.  When you look at near misses with Bingtao and Lisowski recently it’s variance and also a fact that the top of the market has dominated.  If recent events and younger winners have a changing of the guard effect, I’m hoping we have good days ahead and we already have a unique and unusual high volume of ante-post bets.

As mentioned in last year’s review, one aim was to increase volume in 2021 and we did by 80%.  Now I’ve proved what, I thought I learnt at the end of 2020, I will endeavour to increase stakes slightly also.  It’s encouraging to know that betting without outrights would have yielded 20%+ and as such as I’ve mentioned before, it’s okay to bet more on snooker than golf.  The main thing to do, if you choose to, is to be consistent and disciplined with staking perhaps reviewing yearly only.  What I also need to mention, is that if you increase stakes on side markets particularly by too much you allow bookmakers to mark and close accounts so make sure you have new ones ready to use.  Snooker is different to golf in fact that we have only the bookmakers to use as exchanges aren’t liquid apart from Money lines.

Overall, I feel more content with my snooker for the first time than any of my previous four years reviews.  Famous last words but I feel confident 2022 could be our best year yet.

Golf Outright 2021

Lifetime: 2297 bets, 48.67% ROI

2021: 708 bets, 38.44% ROI

After only breaking even in 2020, I was delighted to see the Golf Outright model back on track.  Golf is a great betting sport and there’s more than one way to skin the cat and my style has always been the highest variance route in the attempt to maximise profits long term.  This is a built-in ethos for my service as the lower variance of golf place and snooker manage our bankroll against those long losing streaks that hit the outright model.  That downside to high variance has hurt us since September with no outright winners despite many close shaves as the model was above 50% at the end of August.  That’s to be expected long term but the top of the market-dominating the PGA Tour events in the fall wasn’t helpful or the usual occurrence.   Noticeable that my volume is high at 708 bets and one aim is to reduce that by 10 or 15% in 2022.  The other aim is to improve my staking, as on occasion when we went 0.2ew or bigger our selections run poorly.  That was something I did well in the opening two years of service but has been a leak the last two years.  That’s likely variance but the short-term impact in 2021 hasn’t been ideal but the upside is we’ve had some serious CLV (closing line value) and unwittingly the bookies have dodged many good bullets in late 2021.

I need to mention, that like the golf place model, it’s entirely feasible someone betting exchanges at 30 to 40% higher win prices has a better ROI than our 38%.

Overall, I’m content we hit what we should on Golf outright in 2022 in the knowledge it would have been a little better in the second half of the year with kinder variance.

Golf Place

Lifetime: 1937 bets, 25.81% ROI

2021: 512 bets, -0.64% ROI

January to June: 281 bets, 79.45 staked, -11.75, -14.82% ROI

July to December: 231 bets, 41 staked, 11.13 profit, 27.12% ROI

It’s been the most difficult year of four on my place model and I’ve broken the year into two halves to illustrate the poor opening six months.  I adjusted in the second half of the year decreasing volume by approximately 20% and stakes by 50%.

Over the three previous years, the place model was my mainstay balancing variance perfectly and particularly in year 3 when golf outright only broke even.  The results are the results and all that matters but it’s plausible we had a ridiculously high number of blowups from positions trading at sub1.25+ on the exchanges, and it’s prudent to point out that taking exchange prices were at least 20% bigger on Wednesdays across the board.  That said, post-Covid-19, the strengths of the fields changed particularly at the top end so it’s not surprising that the profit was made in the second half of the year when the players’ schedules finally settled back into the previous status quo.

The success in the early years of the model brought me directly into conflict with the major bookmaker we all use and the compiler the golf industry relies on to formulate the initial model.  There was a period in 2020 when they had gained access to my tips and were cutting prices in moments post email.  Interestingly after 12 months of holding back the place markets until the last few months of 2021, they’ve been going up first again which cynically will be because they had stopped the leak.  That may have been to our advantage in recent months and can be going forward.

Variance is a cruel mistress and there’s little doubt we had the worst of it in 2021 but I also made mistakes with volume and staking during the opening six months. 

Overall review

Lifetime: 6842 bets, ROI 28.87%

2021: 2187 bets, ROI 18.71%

January to June: Bets 1158, staked 224, ROI 15.18

July to December: Bets 1029, staked 144, ROI 24.19

I hope you will forgive me for doing my yearly review a little early but after this week our figures won’t change markedly for the worse and I want some time away from betting.  This will allow me to digest this review and enjoy time with my family over the festive season to recharge my batteries for 2022.

It feels like an average year at bookmaker prices making 18.71% for members and like always in life, betting is a constant learning curve.  There’s no doubt, it’s the Golf Place model that brought our ROI down below 20% for the first time in a yearly review.

To help, I broke the year down into two halves which proves my point that Golf Place dragged the profit down given we know that it was profitable in the second half of the year from our earlier review.

That leads to the conclusion that the opening six months results on the Golf Place model dragged the overall ROI down.

That said, I’m immensely proud of my service and anyone using exchanges will have gone above 20%.  I have been lucky enough to build up a core of some great long-term members whose trust and support is much appreciated.

Betting is meant to be fun! I believe my service offers that opportunity while making some nice profits with the occasional big hits to enjoy.  If you ever feel betting isn’t fun, then take a break as there’s more to life than the next winner.

It leaves me to say, I hope you and yours have come through this troubling period in the World unscathed as there’s nothing more important than family and loved ones. 

Let me take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Craig

Golf Outright 2021
Lifetime: 2297 bets, 48.67% ROI
2021: 708 bets, 38.44% ROI

After only breaking even in 2020, I was delighted to see the Golf Outright model back on track. Golf is a great betting sport and there’s more than one way to skin the cat and my style has always been the highest variance route in the attempt to maximise profits long term. This is a built-in ethos for my service as the lower variance of golf place and snooker manage our bankroll against those long losing streaks that hit the outright model. That downside to high variance has hurt us since September with no outright winners despite many close shaves as the model was above 50% at the end of August. That’s to be expected long term but the top of the market-dominating the PGA Tour events in the fall wasn’t helpful or the usual occurrence. Noticeable that my volume is high at 708 bets and one aim is to reduce that by 10 or 15% in 2022. The other aim is to improve my staking, as on occasion when we went 0.2ew or bigger our selections run poorly. That was something I did well in the opening two years of service but has been a leak the last two years. That’s likely variance but the short-term impact in 2021 hasn’t been ideal but the upside is we’ve had some serious CLV (closing line value) and unwittingly the bookies have dodged many good bullets in late 2021.
I need to mention, that like the golf place model, it’s entirely feasible someone betting exchanges at 30 to 40% higher win prices has a better ROI than our 38%.
Overall, I’m content we hit what we should on Golf outright in 2022 in the knowledge it would have been a little better in the second half of the year with kinder variance.

Golf Place

Lifetime: 1937 bets, 25.81% ROI

2021: 512 bets, -0.64% ROI

January to June: 281 bets, 79.45 staked, -11.75, -14.82% ROI

July to December: 231 bets, 41 staked, 11.13 profit, 27.12% ROI

It’s been the most difficult year of four on my place model and I’ve broken the year into two halves to illustrate the poor opening six months.  I adjusted in the second half of the year decreasing volume by approximately 20% and stakes by 50%.

Over the three previous years, the place model was my mainstay balancing variance perfectly and particularly in year 3 when golf outright only broke even.  The results are the results and all that matters but it’s plausible we had a ridiculously high number of blowups from positions trading at sub1.25+ on the exchanges, and it’s prudent to point out that taking exchange prices were at least 20% bigger on Wednesdays across the board.  That said, post-Covid-19, the strengths of the fields changed particularly at the top end so it’s not surprising that the profit was made in the second half of the year when the players’ schedules finally settled back into the previous status quo.

The success in the early years of the model brought me directly into conflict with the major bookmaker we all use and the compiler the golf industry relies on to formulate the initial model.  There was a period in 2020 when they had gained access to my tips and were cutting prices in moments post email.  Interestingly after 12 months of holding back the place markets until the last few months of 2021, they’ve been going up first again which cynically will be because they had stopped the leak.  That may have been to our advantage in recent months and can be going forward.

Variance is a cruel mistress and there’s little doubt we had the worst of it in 2021 but I also made mistakes with volume and staking during the opening six months. 

Overall review

Lifetime: 6842 bets, ROI 28.87%

2021: 2187 bets, ROI 18.71%

January to June: Bets 1158, staked 224, ROI 15.18

July to December: Bets 1029, staked 144, ROI 24.19

I hope you will forgive me for doing my yearly review a little early but after this week our figures won’t change markedly for the worse and I want some time away from betting.  This will allow me to digest this review and enjoy time with my family over the festive season to recharge my batteries for 2022.

It feels like an average year at bookmaker prices making 18.71% for members and like always in life, betting is a constant learning curve.  There’s no doubt, it’s the Golf Place model that brought our ROI down below 20% for the first time in a yearly review.

To help, I broke the year down into two halves which proves my point that Golf Place dragged the profit down given we know that it was profitable in the second half of the year from our earlier review.

That leads to the conclusion that the opening six months results on the Golf Place model dragged the overall ROI down.

That said, I’m immensely proud of my service and anyone using exchanges will have gone above 20%.  I have been lucky enough to build up a core of some great long-term members whose trust and support is much appreciated.

Betting is meant to be fun! I believe my service offers that opportunity while making some nice profits with the occasional big hits to enjoy.  If you ever feel betting isn’t fun, then take a break as there’s more to life than the next winner.

It leaves me to say, I hope you and yours have come through this troubling period in the World unscathed as there’s nothing more important than family and loved ones. 

Let me take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Craig

Snooker 2021
Lifetime: 2459 bets, 16.75% ROI
2021: 922 bets, 15.15% ROI

Please forgive me for completing the snooker review before next week’s finish but I don’t expect figures to be markedly worse.
The snooker model has delighted and frustrated me in equal measure during 2021.
Let’s get the frustration out of the way and that’s simply how poorly we’ve run variance/results wise in the outright markets. In truth the previous 18 months was fantastic in snooker outrights while the previous 18 months to that was as frustrating as this current spell, though I’m hoping Xintong hitting in the UK Championship is the start of better form. There’s no way of building up a big sample of bets quickly like at golf in snooker outright so all we can do is be patient. When you look at near misses with Bingtao and Lisowski recently it’s variance and also a fact that the top of the market has dominated. If recent events and younger winners have a changing of the guard effect, I’m hoping we have good days ahead and we already have a unique and unusual high volume of ante-post bets.
As mentioned in last year’s review, one aim was to increase volume in 2021 and we did by 80%. Now I’ve proved what, I thought I learnt at the end of 2020, I will endeavour to increase stakes slightly also. It’s encouraging to know that betting without outrights would have yielded 20%+ and as such as I’ve mentioned before, it’s okay to bet more on snooker than golf. The main thing to do, if you choose to, is to be consistent and disciplined with staking perhaps reviewing yearly only. What I also need to mention, is that if you increase stakes on side markets particularly by too much you allow bookmakers to mark and close accounts so make sure you have new ones ready to use. Snooker is different to golf in fact that we have only the bookmakers to use as exchanges aren’t liquid apart from Money lines.
Overall, I feel more content with my snooker for the first time than any of my previous four years reviews. Famous last words but I feel confident 2022 could be our best year yet.

Ronnie v Kyren

These two have an interesting h2h with Ronnie leading 7-3 and appearing in charge. The matches however tell a different story and have been the route cause for Kyren’s Clinchers disease with Ronnie winning QF GP from 1-3 down 5-3, Shanghai masters QF losing 6-5 from 1-5 up and ofcourse the COC final when he lost 10-9 from 9-8 up and on a break of 61. Hard losses to take for anyone but it does show Kyren has the ability to outplay Ronnie for long periods. Sadly today he is 13/8 best price which is unappealing for a bet and possibly a bet in running if their learnt behaviour continues.

McGill v Brecel

Interestingly, h2h Brecel leads 4-0 and the bookmakers have made him favourite despite being behind McGill by 40 or 65 points in outright betting pre which is unusual and points to McGill on value as in truth if these two player Quarter Final of WC no way is Brecel fav. Also h2h domination has become a hinderance deep with player’s expectations causing the Domino effect this week which counterintuitively again leans to McGill winning but at 2.00 I am happy to pass.

Hicks v Hawkins

I’ve enjoyed watching and profiting from Andy’s progress, having spent many hours practising with him at the Norbreck Castle back in the day. It goes to show how class stays with a player and the power of his play broke DG in the end. Can he do it again today? I do hope so and like DG, the Hawk can crumble if you can keep pressure up. Cannot bet on Andy but I will be rooting for him on many levels especially as winner will play Xintong or Lisowski to make the final.

Liswoski v Xintong

When the players came out for frame 1 yesterday, Lisowski looked ultra focused to do the business in frame 1. I thought this is cool, he looks on it and would win easy. Frame 2 he got edgy and his shot selection and focus went. Overall he was fortunate to win, having played like a headless chicken. That mindset doesn’t bode well for out outrights and hearing him say they would both go for everything made me cringe (he has so much experience deep in events compared to his opponent, now is the time he needs to use it so let’s hope it was psychology but I doubt it). Whoever wins will never have an easier opportunity to make the UK Champs final.

Conclusion

As always deep in these events, bets become a rarer commodity in matches with pricing easy for bookie and players playing their truer form.
If Lisowski or Hawk play Ronnie in final it will be a done deal for the ‘Rocket’. Xintong may have the same chance the ‘Rocket’ did against Hendry in 93 however, so that would be one to revisit.
No official bets, I’m just going to enjoy the quarter finals while adding quarter 4 profits to an excellent two weeks, there will be bets with more edge in the coming days so no need to force any today

Dear snooker member,

I had a couple of enquiries from new members how level staking would pan out. Last year it would have been both staking forms at 21% as blog entry shows. This year’s will be broken down over the new year but there’s not been the outright success thus far so it’s doubtful level staking would be the same or better. Currently in 2021 we are running at 15% across all snooker bets……

I certainly would never put anyone off level staking the snooker long term though

Blog entry 11 months ago below
The snooker model finished the year with 625 selections if I counted each way ones as 2 (counted as 1 on sheets). I did this to split up how many bets we had and could review them at level stakes in comparison to the staking plan. From late November I took a more gregarious approach with higher volume in the final weeks of 2020 while reducing individual bet stakes. Remarkably both ways came out with 21% ROI and that is counting Holt as each way winner at 67.00 in the shootout. Early 2020 we had fewer bets, but we had an excellent run on the Outrights with Holt winning (101.00 was available but counted as 67.00), we also had Yuelong and Dott as runner up for ½ two places at 67.00. After Ash Carty qualified for World Championship at 34.00 and McGill won his quarter at 23.00 (July) we then run dry until the UK Championship when Yuelong won his quarter at 19.00(December). During and after our volume increased on match selections and we run at over 20% on the match and break markets alone in this period that was dominated by favourites (11.00 sub) reaching all the finals. My main reason for building the volume was because players were in a monotonous situation and thus any upswings or dips in forms could be magnified and relied upon more by us as punters. 2020 was a year of two halves and in fairness, our snooker model was a microcosm. I plan to start 2021 slowly and feel my way in as always while intending to increase the volume of bets with higher staking than November and December if the Milton Keynes dynamic develops which looks likely. If my staking had increased with the volume of those two months, we would have made more profit but these new Covid 19 dynamics meant I was a little reluctant to believe a new dynamic without some plausible proof I was right. If I get this right in 2021 then I will increase snooker profits regardless of outright bets.

Dear snooker member 
As dissappointing as it was again for Yan Bingtao to fall on the final match the truth is John Higgins played much the better after the interval. Hopefully you all hedged a few bob back.

These two have some wonderful matches and the World final that Trump won, was a watershed giving him the biggest injection of self confidence imaginable. That was because prior he hadn’t beaten John Higgins in the longer format of the game and put him on a pedastool mentally.

Interesting today how we are at a full circle with Trump winning the last 8 matches between the pair since the World final and reaching this week’s final having won 16 successive frames.

Then we see John has had a late night and coming off the two final disappointments.

Everything points to Judd Trump winning surely?

As long as John can keep the early exchanges competitive today, I feel he could get his own watershed moment.

Sadly, given John was going off at 10/3 and 7/2 versus Trump in last year’s semi finals they played prices between 2.68-2.88 make no appeal.

So will just sit back and enjoy the final, maybe cheer John on who has been brilliant on occasions in recent weeks.
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Subscribers have already landed Yan Bingtao to win quarter bet and tonight he needs to win to guarantee the each way money at 33/1.

Despite that, at the prices Yan Bingtao is a still bet tonight due to the merits of today’s dynamics.

Given Bingtao’s strong head to head against Higgins I was surprised to see the Scot as a strong favourite and indeed a bigger price than David Gilbert was yesterday.

Ofcourse, John Higgins is a great champion who could rise to the occasion tonight like great champion’s do but he looked drained of confidence on the conclusion of yesterday’s quarter final when his hard tip and thining cloth were to blame for a looser cue ball control than ideal.

If he doesn’t get an early foothold tonight, I believe the young Chinese star could be too strong and have taken two bets;

15  Yan Bingtao to beat John Higgins 13/10 b365, 2.40+ exchanges

5     Yan Bingtao -2.5 frames alternate handicap at 10/3 easily available.

Yan Bingtao v Hossein Vafaei

This match has a very similar dynamic as the previous one without the head to head dynamic.

Yan Bingtao was an impressive Masters champion last year adding to his already impressive CV from the previous year.
That highlight shone bright for the talented precocious talent from China in last year’s season when he came unstuck on many occasions in the other events and particularly best of 7s.
In the snooker world it’s become impossible to see future world champions like days of yore but Bingtao looks one to me.  His no frills deadpan Matchplay style looks perfect for the longer formats of the game where he wears down the opponent similar to Mark Selby and Kyren Wilson.  Like those two however, he’s a little more vulnerable in best of 7 without them explosives spells of form that the likes of Judd Trump and Jack Lisowski utilise to put their matches to bed in less than half an hour.
This makes him vulnerable tomorrow morning against Hossein Vafaei, a similar no frills player but in seemingly better form at the moment.  Vafaei comes from a tough upbringing in Iran that is likely to serve him well as he carves out a career.  That career is already underrated by bookmakers despite several semi finals and deep runs.  Importantly, he’s not the sort of player to be overawed as he proved against Judd Trump in the Welsh Open.
The clincher for a bet here is that Yan Bingtao is coming under a world of pressure with his world ranking plummeting despite winning the Masters.  So much so that unless he breaks his cycle of poor form he may fall out of the top 16 and even the top 32.  Psychologically that has to be at the back of his mind, I do think he will pull out of this nose dive by winning or going deep in several events but for tomorrow match he’s got an extremely difficult opener.
If Bingtao was in his best form, I would only make him the price that the bookmakers have opened but with all those dynamics applied, I don’t make him much better than a slight favourite tomorrow.  Plenty of 13/8 around and I’ve already been matched on exchanges above 2.90+

0.2  Hossein Vafaei to beat Yan Bingtao 7/4 (2.75) upwards, 0.1 below

Zhou Yuelong v Jimmy Robertson

A brief write up on tonight’s match between Zhou Yuelong, last year’s UK Championship semi finalist and Jimmy Robertson who looks to be returning to his best form.
Subscribers will know how profitable Zhou Yuelong has been for us to follow these past fifteen months but today I’m deserting him.  The British Open was a good return to these shores for Yuelong but the way he lost to Elliott Slessor in their semi final when missing a match winning black off the spot wasn’t ideal.  Due to Covid-19 protocols he’s been unable to play in the qualifying events leaving him no opportunity to get it out of his system.  Losing those opening rounds through no fault of his own won’t have done anything positive for Yuelong who needs a strong run to make his first Masters in January.
Jimmy Robertson however, is ticking along very nicely with a semi final berth in that Briitsh Open and solid qualifying wins since.  He’s starting to look like the player who won the European Masters a couple of seasons ago.
As always snooker matches are 80% plus in the mind’s of the player’s and I can’t help but think that at this moment Jimmy Robertson has the impetus in that department.  There is also the small matter of their head to head record of 4-0 to Robertson.  For checks and balances it’s fair to mention that those meetings were prior to 2018 but it’s still a one sided dynamic and another small psychological factor pointing to Jimmy Robertson especially given the bookmakers pricing that has Zhou Yuelong as a solid favourite at between 8/13 and 4/6.  I actually managed to get matched on Jimmy at 2.48 on the exchanges but any prices north of 2.20 are a worthwhile play on Jimmy Robertson tonight.  For me it’s a 0.1 unit play upto 2.30 increasing to 0.2 units if you can get above 2.30 which should be easily obtainable on exchanges.

Jimmy Robertson to beat Zhou Yuelong 0.2 units if you can get 2.30 and above and 0.1 below.