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Craig Edwards' Snooker and Golf Blog

Golf Review 2023

Uncategorised Posted on 12 Dec, 2023 03:07PM

Golf Review 2023

I am pleased to share my 2023 Golf Review in the knowledge our profit currently sits at a respectable 18% ROI from over 1500 bets

I say respectable because it is only the second time in six years that it has fallen below 20%.

Firstly, let’s look at the turbulent peaks and troughs we endured in 2023, they are the most violent ones since we began. The first two months we grinded along at a small loss then by the end of March we had finally found some big-priced winners and then from March until September Golf ran at 40% profit as below.

Since September we have hit a poor run of form which has seen a loss of 20% as below

To add further context, in review and investigate further, it was found that I ended 2022 in similar fashion as below

That is the most illuminating aspect of any reviews I have ever done previously and when I went back further, 2021 showed the same trend.

Experience dictated my approach

I have been betting golf for a second income for nearly 30 years and my mindset starting a tipping service was that historically, my best betting months were always the starting 3 months and the final 4 months of the year. My first two years as a service followed that path and was phenomenal and I am sure long-term followers remember Brendan Todd going back-to-back in the fall of 2019 at 100s+.

In fact, I used to believe the major season (April-August) was my least profitable. Well, that must change going forward.

Initial Plans for 2024

My plans for 2024 are slightly different and we will increase stakes slightly from March through August. Instead of reducing stakes in the other periods we will reduce volume which will have an effect. Further investigation found that with exception of Rama the place model struggled to find the bigger priced winners outside of those peak months.

As you can see, we bet 55 points each year after September, and I intend to bring that down to approx. 40 next year.

There are other reasons pulling against profit in 2023 and possibly the main one is the lower average price of outright winners.

My style has always been to optimize the biggest price ranges for profit. Since time began in golf betting there is more than one way of making profit if you follow all the regular tropes. Jeremy Chapman who was the doyen with Keith Elliott nowadays takes the easy view of playing the top of the market. That style will likely have yielded his best recent year in 2023.

We must acknowledge that there have been more winners from the head of the market since Covid-19 in 2020 and that tilted further to the head of the market in 2023.

2023 PGA Tour – 45 events

7 winners – 100/1+

9 winners – 50/1 to 99/1

12 winners – sub 19/1 downwards

17 winners – between 20/1 and 49/1

Effectively 30% of PGA events have been won by players of 50/1+ and that reduces further at 100/1 to 15%.

To add context in 2019 there was 17 winners of above 100/1 let alone 50/1.

2023 European Tour – 37 events

11 winners – 100/1+

8 winners – 50/1 to 99/1 (Hisatsune and Hiller settled at 90/1 but both were 100s in places)

5 winners – 19/1 and below

13 winners – between 20/1 and 49/1

The European Tour was our best and the number of winners of 50/1+ accounted for just over 50% of events in comparison to 30% on the PGA Tour. This is more in keeping with my style of betting.

Further plans for 2024

We will continue to attack the European Tour more with the big-priced winners more apparent there. That will be reflected in our staking plans a little bit more.

As always with betting, it is a constantly moving landscape and doing reviews has always been as good for me as subscribers. The golf one has unearthed some nice edges to be aware of and use in 2024 but as always, we need to be sensitive to change.

2023 Snooker Review

Uncategorised Posted on 12 Dec, 2023 01:10PM
Odds Range upto 4/1
Odds range from 4/1 upwards

Snooker Review – 2023

I am pleased to say, it has been another solid reliable year of snooker betting for members. There has been the usual ups and downs that come with snooker but overall, a ROI at just under 16% from over 1000 bets (settled at B365 prices) are always acceptable figures and in keeping with long-term profits.

With Brecel winning the World Championship at 50s was a helpful but overall, with Hongyiu 40s and Pullen 50s the other two big-priced winners everything was in line with expectations. Interestingly, 1045 bets opposed to 833 the previous year is a 20% increase. That did surprise me a little with the knowledge that I intended to concentrate on the early rounds of events and widen range when the matches were best of 9 frames minimum. I also believe that the Bet365 compiler has improved or changed (he often sets the initial market) but like in War we never play all our cards, dipping in and out certain smaller markets for yield but not to destroy their future in the process

Peaks and troughs always distort things short-term, but the two screenshots have a breakdown of the odds range upto 4/1 and bigger than 4/1 and to see such consistent figures over the long term at b365 is hugely pleasing.

I will take a further look into if I can reduce volume back to 833 bets which would be 20 less a month. As you know, the volume comes in round 1 and 2 when my edge on the firms is at its greatest.

Not much more to say other than long term, I am hugely proud of my tipping service and the numbers it churns out, though a little astounded at its long-term consistency.