Craig Edwards' Snooker and Golf Blog

With so many players showing up well only to fall away and it prompted a few members to ask whether 1/4 odds 5 places or 1/5 odds 6 7 or 8 places is better.

– 1/4odds 5 places is always better than 1/5odds 6 places.

– 1/5odds 7 or 8 places upwards is preferred to 1/4odds 5 places.

– 1/5odds 10 each way book Betfair exchange is best even losing 20% off our minimum price is acceptable.

One point I have noticed these opening couple of weeks has been how much liquidity the 10 place each way exchange book has 36 hours before event.

– I managed to get Larrazabal and Stone at 100/1 each way 10 places in Abu Dhabi

– I managed to get Stuard at 170, Landry at 90, Putnam 28 and Swafford 38 each way 10 places in Desert Classic

You can see patience can pay off by waiting on the betfair exchange each way book and at 10 places we can accept losing 20% of price.

Of course with so many players getting between 6th and 8th these last two weeks it has brought it to our attention and I hope this will be helpful going forward.

Unibet and 888sport have 6 places and often start at bigger prices than the rest so in these circumstances it is fine to take 6 providing we have at least 25% better price than other books.

I know it can feel complicated so DM anytime until you feel comfortable with all the changing dynamics.

A promising position in the Sony Open going into tonight’s third round and a few members have asked me about hedging in this position. Hedging is very much a personal thing and comes down to what your happiest doing, the one advice I would give is if you do it you need to be consistent and do it every time. Long term I am not sure it makes too much difference but it does keep varience down if you prefer.
My read on situation is that before last night I was concerned that Putnams opening round was a freak putting one but probability is now he is playing and putting well.
Matt Kuchar just missed out on selection in my place model but he did win before Christmas so warrants respect.
At todays prices with fresh eyes Putnam still looks slightly the better pick of the two, but you would expect with no bad weather forecast that both players or one will shoot 8 under minimum over final 2 rounds making it difficult for field to catch up without shooting 12/13under or better for final two rounds.
For betting purposes I am also happy to rule out Cink or Reavie winning but respect the two players at 9 under more as potential winners, Leishman and Potter.
If both players start tonight playing well again and get 3 under for the opening nine holes it could quickly become a match. If you won’t be staying up like me you could potentially leave some offers in exchange to lay Putnam at even money and less, probably drip feed them in from 1.96 to 1.12 at regular intervals just in case that scenario develops.
Another option is Kuchar trading now at 2.70 on the exchanges in comparison to 11/8 with the bookmakers so those who are not laying Putnam a 1 unit bet at 2.68+ is an option.
Hope that helps, let’s hope for good rounds from all our players this evening.

Have a good weekend

Craig

Welcome to all new and old subscribers to my blog. I am delighted we now have our new platform and grateful to Tennis Pilot for their help through the process. Great to have a blog to give you all an in sight into my thought process that goes into my tips over the coming weeks.
For those of you that are old subscribers I apologise if you’ve heard this before however, it is important that you all follow the staking plan for over the season it will balance your price ranges and keep varience down to a minimum. That is not to say our bankrolls will not suffer short term varience so it is always important to keep your discipline regardless of results. Despite what people think I don’t see myself as a professional gambler, much rather a sensible one who knows how to spread risk over time.
I work a betting market backwards and stake according to my perceived value. Golf in particular is a brilliant sport to bet as most events have near one hundred and fifty runners giving the bookmakers pricing nightmares. Their attention and most punters are drawn to the top of the market but long term I am much happier backing a 200/1 shot whose price I believe is approximately between 50/1 and 66/1.
We will have winners at shorter prices on our place model even then though some will be 20/1 plus at times. Significantly easier to tip a 20/1 place model winner than a 20/1 outright winner from one hundred and fifty runners.
You will also notice on my First Round Leader selections I rarely tip below 100/1 because of dead heat probability. We have already had two 250/1 winners in last four months and numerous place returns. Varience Is high but profit also.
From my years as a snooker professional I have an understanding in how a sportsmans mind works during the long season. The ebbs and flows of the mind will affect the bio-rhythms and endorphins that give the best or worst hand to eye co-ordination on the day.
The snooker model will have the lowest varience, put simply the average price is lower but this complements the golf models perfectly.

Any queries or advice just DM me on Twitter anytime.

All The Best for the New Year

Craig