Craig Edwards' Snooker and Golf Blog

We hit the crossbar in the opening two weeks of the year but last week we crushed the place model in particular with Sloan 10/1 (20/1 exchange), Langley 10/1 and Poston 13/2 winning in the Desert Classic, we also had Svensson placing at 100/1 on the first round leader market for those who could get on the unofficial tip. Across the Atlantic on the European Tour at Abu Dhabi, Louis Oosthuisen placed at 22/1 while Pablo Larrazabal placed at 100/1 and how refreshing to see so many of you used the 10 place each way book on the Betfair exchange getting a full return.
Our current week and this last one are indicative of what level and quality of tips members can expect when both tours are in full swing at regular venues.

This week the main golf tours are in action at long established venues with the opening round at the Omega Desert Classic just completed and plenty of our selections have made good solid starts.
What the opening round scores today illustrates is how careful we have to be with our first Round Leader selections average price. Dead heat rules affect the place part of selections in the long run so I always keep stakes small and rarely go below 100/1 on a full field event without very solid reasons and these selections may be win only. Varience is at the highest on our selections in this market but stakes are small in comparison to our range and as most of you know we have already had two 250/1 winners in last 3 months. Even then both were dead heat affected so in effect 250/1 two way dead heat paying 125/1 on win market and four way dead heat on the other to 62.5/1 again on win market.
We have approximately 15 units profit so far this month
Tonight in San Diego we have the Farmers Insurance starting and we have three outright selections given the knowledge that the top of the market is strong with course specialists in Woods, Day, Rahm and Leishamn to name a few.
Our three alternatives include our own course specialist Brandt Snedeker at a reasonable 50/1 followed by two promising professionals whose career are on solid inclines at the moment.
Abraham Ancer won the Emirates Australian Open in impressive style before Christmas and after last week’s 18th blowing any cobwebs away we can expect the young Mexican to be pushing hard for his maiden PGA tour win.
J J Spaun has a very similar profile and after the last two years at this venue promising much he will be sharper for last week making the three figure price made appeal. Hopefully many of you got matched on Betfair exchange 10place book on the later two selections.

Next week we have the long established Phoenix Open in Arizona on the PGA tour and we will be concentrating our efforts there. The European Tour hosts the Saudi International at a new venue so I cannot imagine many bets as I like a conservative approach in these circumstances while learning what we can for future years.

That said we have snooker returning from a week off with the German Masters a well established ranking event starts which starts next Wednesday so you can expect bets will be sent in the coming days as bookmakers price matches and Outrights.

The month so far we have had several places on the outright model without a tournament winner and the balance the place model brings is illustrated perfectly.

January 2019: Bets 64, staked 36.5, profit 17.43, ROI 47.75%

This week we have staked 19.2 units across 32 selections.

Let’s hope we have another good weekend

Craig

With so many players showing up well only to fall away and it prompted a few members to ask whether 1/4 odds 5 places or 1/5 odds 6 7 or 8 places is better.

– 1/4odds 5 places is always better than 1/5odds 6 places.

– 1/5odds 7 or 8 places upwards is preferred to 1/4odds 5 places.

– 1/5odds 10 each way book Betfair exchange is best even losing 20% off our minimum price is acceptable.

One point I have noticed these opening couple of weeks has been how much liquidity the 10 place each way exchange book has 36 hours before event.

– I managed to get Larrazabal and Stone at 100/1 each way 10 places in Abu Dhabi

– I managed to get Stuard at 170, Landry at 90, Putnam 28 and Swafford 38 each way 10 places in Desert Classic

You can see patience can pay off by waiting on the betfair exchange each way book and at 10 places we can accept losing 20% of price.

Of course with so many players getting between 6th and 8th these last two weeks it has brought it to our attention and I hope this will be helpful going forward.

Unibet and 888sport have 6 places and often start at bigger prices than the rest so in these circumstances it is fine to take 6 providing we have at least 25% better price than other books.

I know it can feel complicated so DM anytime until you feel comfortable with all the changing dynamics.

A promising position in the Sony Open going into tonight’s third round and a few members have asked me about hedging in this position. Hedging is very much a personal thing and comes down to what your happiest doing, the one advice I would give is if you do it you need to be consistent and do it every time. Long term I am not sure it makes too much difference but it does keep varience down if you prefer.
My read on situation is that before last night I was concerned that Putnams opening round was a freak putting one but probability is now he is playing and putting well.
Matt Kuchar just missed out on selection in my place model but he did win before Christmas so warrants respect.
At todays prices with fresh eyes Putnam still looks slightly the better pick of the two, but you would expect with no bad weather forecast that both players or one will shoot 8 under minimum over final 2 rounds making it difficult for field to catch up without shooting 12/13under or better for final two rounds.
For betting purposes I am also happy to rule out Cink or Reavie winning but respect the two players at 9 under more as potential winners, Leishman and Potter.
If both players start tonight playing well again and get 3 under for the opening nine holes it could quickly become a match. If you won’t be staying up like me you could potentially leave some offers in exchange to lay Putnam at even money and less, probably drip feed them in from 1.96 to 1.12 at regular intervals just in case that scenario develops.
Another option is Kuchar trading now at 2.70 on the exchanges in comparison to 11/8 with the bookmakers so those who are not laying Putnam a 1 unit bet at 2.68+ is an option.
Hope that helps, let’s hope for good rounds from all our players this evening.

Have a good weekend

Craig

Welcome to all new and old subscribers to my blog. I am delighted we now have our new platform and grateful to Tennis Pilot for their help through the process. Great to have a blog to give you all an in sight into my thought process that goes into my tips over the coming weeks.
For those of you that are old subscribers I apologise if you’ve heard this before however, it is important that you all follow the staking plan for over the season it will balance your price ranges and keep varience down to a minimum. That is not to say our bankrolls will not suffer short term varience so it is always important to keep your discipline regardless of results. Despite what people think I don’t see myself as a professional gambler, much rather a sensible one who knows how to spread risk over time.
I work a betting market backwards and stake according to my perceived value. Golf in particular is a brilliant sport to bet as most events have near one hundred and fifty runners giving the bookmakers pricing nightmares. Their attention and most punters are drawn to the top of the market but long term I am much happier backing a 200/1 shot whose price I believe is approximately between 50/1 and 66/1.
We will have winners at shorter prices on our place model even then though some will be 20/1 plus at times. Significantly easier to tip a 20/1 place model winner than a 20/1 outright winner from one hundred and fifty runners.
You will also notice on my First Round Leader selections I rarely tip below 100/1 because of dead heat probability. We have already had two 250/1 winners in last four months and numerous place returns. Varience Is high but profit also.
From my years as a snooker professional I have an understanding in how a sportsmans mind works during the long season. The ebbs and flows of the mind will affect the bio-rhythms and endorphins that give the best or worst hand to eye co-ordination on the day.
The snooker model will have the lowest varience, put simply the average price is lower but this complements the golf models perfectly.

Any queries or advice just DM me on Twitter anytime.

All The Best for the New Year

Craig