Craig Edwards' Snooker and Golf Blog

Dear snooker member,

I understand Black type bet will price the Q school matches tomorrow and that means a good chance bet365 will, however I would be happy for anyone to message or tweet bet365 asking (more the better and use someone else twitter or account so not to redflag).

I have been reviewing results since February 2018 with having some downtime with a few findings to learn from going forward.

Bets 550, staked 458 profit 83 ROI 18%, TOTAL

Bets 120, staked 134 profit 31, ROI 23%, price range 1.50-1.99

Bets 106, staked 106, profit 30, ROI 28%, price range 2.00-2.49

Bets 74, staked 58, profit -2.5, ROI -5%, price range 2.50-2.99

Bets 84, staked 68, profit 12, ROI 18.5%, price range 3.00-3.99

Bets 101, staked 60, profit 24, ROI 40%, price range 4.00-10.00

Bets 65, staked 32, profit -12, ROI -37%, price range 10.01-1000

Positives

1.5-2.49 range, better than I expected and I never tip below 1.66. Something to build on with staking wise

4.00-10.00 range, good and again staking will increase

3.00-3.99 range, acceptable, staking similar in future

Negatives

2.50-2.99 range, poor return and I intend to address this going forward by going over my process from previous bets and reduce staking in this area.

10+ range, a disappointing return however, bets were outright selections and stakes smallest at 0.50 average.

Conclusions,

Always lots to learn and a bad World Championship has dragged the overall ROI down however, that goes with the territory and next year in the World Championships i will add a Telegram channel for those who want. Bets will have less time to be placed and NOT included in P&L.

Going forward into the new season I will steer away from the 2.50-2.99 area unless I feel we have large margin with bets to smaller stakes.

The outrights we have endured a dreadful run however I will keep stakes small while the sample unwinds a little more.

I will increase my staking in the 1.66-2.50 and 4.00 and above.

18% ROI is very acceptable given the poor outright return.

Happy for all feedback and thoughts. ( quantity of bets ? is it enough ? too many ? or not enough ? )

Come and DM me on twitter for chat about these subjects anytime.

I hope the stats help our staking going forward.

Dear snooker member,

China Open, semi finals

An interesting semi final line up tomorrow and I give both underdogs solid chances. Luca Brecel has a star quality and the level of his play increases with each match he wins making him a more dangerous opponent at the later stages of tournaments but Neil Robertson is in sublime form himself.

The other match Donaldson has a good head2head with Lisowski and is just the sort of player who will frustrate the talented left hander the longer the match progresses.

All four semi finalists break building has been excellent all week and there is a case for both underdogs in high break scorer market. When players win four best of 11 matches you can expect their break building to be flawless so when I advise a bet I like the player I am opposing to be opposable for certain reasons which we don’t have.

The only one of the four I feel may drop his level a little is Jack Lisowski (erratic but classy) but we need nearer 3/1 Scott Donaldson which we will get in running if he falls a frame behind so i would not rule out a bet between sessions as the semi finals are best of 19.

If your watching in the morning and Scott Donaldson looks at ease and relaxed, maybe a small bet at 3/1 in running during the opening session if you can and we may go in again for the final session aswell.

My thoughts and hope it helps but keep stakes small if you do bet and enjoy what should be two interesting semi finals.

Hopefully a good time to review, particularly for the new members who signed up at our site launch with the start of 2019. We had an unusually prolonged run of 9/10 weeks without an outright winner and these last two weeks the buses come along winning back to back and with it our overall ROI has increased from 12% to 23.56%.

2019 Stats

Snooker: 118 bets, staked 80.5, profit 15.26, ROI 18.96%
G Place : 128 bets, staked 77.7, profit 25.37, ROI 32.65%
Outright: 146 bets, staked 67.5, profit 12.56, ROI 18.58%
Overall : 392 bets, stake 225.8, profit 53.20, ROI 23.56%

Lifetime Stats

Snooker: 470 bets, 406 staked, 75.84 profit, ROI 18.88%
G Place : 557 bets, 459 staked, 144.5 profit, ROI 31.46%
Outright: 523 bets, 254 staked, 216.7 profit, ROI 85.19%
Overall : 1550 bets, 1119.5 stake, 437.01 profit, ROI 39.04%

The one thing to consider is the stakes are set to balance my overall range however, some members treat the place and snooker as investments portolios and stake accordingly knowing variance is not as volatile as outright.

The one thing to consider is the stakes are set to balance my overall range however, some members treat the place and snooker as investments portolios and stake accordingly knowing variance is not as volatile as outright. Since the start of the year on snooker model we have a statistician Ben Gazeley collecting data and using previous data and you will may have noticed changes to the markets we exploit. As the year develops we will increase the range of markets we exploit and I suggest you give Ben a follow on Twitter @BGazeley.

Since the start of the year on snooker model we have a statistician Ben Gazeley collecting data and using previous data and you will may have noticed changes to the markets we exploit. As the year develops we will increase the range of markets we exploit and I suggest you give Ben a follow on Twitter @BGazeley.

We are working off a three year sample and building our sample at the same time thus, I am excited long term that an already a solid model will find significant improvement. I have been disappointed with our results on outright snooker markets so to be running just under 20% long term is testament to our match analysis and ability to judge changes in momentum quicker than the bookmaker.

We are working off a three year sample and building our sample at the same time thus, I am excited long term that an already a solid model will find significant improvement. I have been disappointed with our results on outright snooker markets so to be running just under 20% long term is testament to our match analysis and ability to judge changes in momentum quicker than the bookmaker.

Golf place is always consistent and I am delighted to be running at 30% again this year however, I do believe we are running slightly above variance. I know it is hard to keep bookmakers accounts open and we rely on using family and friends but if you can keep Betfred, Tote Bwin and Sporting Bet for this model as they pay full on dead heats and anytime they have minimum price it is a great option to have.

Golf Outright has been below variance even taking into account these last two weeks of Molinari at 41 and Furyk 81 and a run of sixty bets without an each way place hurt. That is second time in twelve months we had such a run. We still yield over 85% at best price on this model over 523 bets in just over twelve months but just 18.58% this year.

I have been disappointed by our results in the first round leader market but with an average price of 151 and approximately seventy bets in 2019 that is to be expected when you consider variance was particularly kind before Christmas with two 250/1 winners. Last week Steele and Sabbatini came one shot shy of full place at 200/1 so small margins.

Three months into the new year our new members will have seen how I operate. I appreciate it is a high volume of bets for subscriber so long term there has to be a decent yield. The beauty of betting the entire range is you do not have to bet big to have fun and make a profit. The option is always there to bet bigger stakes if your comfortable so there is something for all types of punters in what I offer.

I got talked into tipping a year ago and in general I really enjoy it now knowing how many of you are genuine snooker and golf fans. In the long run if members are struggling to get on at best prices we will cap membership and despite the odd plunge in prices we are all getting on at the moment.

I am always happy for feedback or discuss as we never stop learning so your always welcome to email or DM myself.

We hit the crossbar in the opening two weeks of the year but last week we crushed the place model in particular with Sloan 10/1 (20/1 exchange), Langley 10/1 and Poston 13/2 winning in the Desert Classic, we also had Svensson placing at 100/1 on the first round leader market for those who could get on the unofficial tip. Across the Atlantic on the European Tour at Abu Dhabi, Louis Oosthuisen placed at 22/1 while Pablo Larrazabal placed at 100/1 and how refreshing to see so many of you used the 10 place each way book on the Betfair exchange getting a full return.
Our current week and this last one are indicative of what level and quality of tips members can expect when both tours are in full swing at regular venues.

This week the main golf tours are in action at long established venues with the opening round at the Omega Desert Classic just completed and plenty of our selections have made good solid starts.
What the opening round scores today illustrates is how careful we have to be with our first Round Leader selections average price. Dead heat rules affect the place part of selections in the long run so I always keep stakes small and rarely go below 100/1 on a full field event without very solid reasons and these selections may be win only. Varience is at the highest on our selections in this market but stakes are small in comparison to our range and as most of you know we have already had two 250/1 winners in last 3 months. Even then both were dead heat affected so in effect 250/1 two way dead heat paying 125/1 on win market and four way dead heat on the other to 62.5/1 again on win market.
We have approximately 15 units profit so far this month
Tonight in San Diego we have the Farmers Insurance starting and we have three outright selections given the knowledge that the top of the market is strong with course specialists in Woods, Day, Rahm and Leishamn to name a few.
Our three alternatives include our own course specialist Brandt Snedeker at a reasonable 50/1 followed by two promising professionals whose career are on solid inclines at the moment.
Abraham Ancer won the Emirates Australian Open in impressive style before Christmas and after last week’s 18th blowing any cobwebs away we can expect the young Mexican to be pushing hard for his maiden PGA tour win.
J J Spaun has a very similar profile and after the last two years at this venue promising much he will be sharper for last week making the three figure price made appeal. Hopefully many of you got matched on Betfair exchange 10place book on the later two selections.

Next week we have the long established Phoenix Open in Arizona on the PGA tour and we will be concentrating our efforts there. The European Tour hosts the Saudi International at a new venue so I cannot imagine many bets as I like a conservative approach in these circumstances while learning what we can for future years.

That said we have snooker returning from a week off with the German Masters a well established ranking event starts which starts next Wednesday so you can expect bets will be sent in the coming days as bookmakers price matches and Outrights.

The month so far we have had several places on the outright model without a tournament winner and the balance the place model brings is illustrated perfectly.

January 2019: Bets 64, staked 36.5, profit 17.43, ROI 47.75%

This week we have staked 19.2 units across 32 selections.

Let’s hope we have another good weekend

Craig

With so many players showing up well only to fall away and it prompted a few members to ask whether 1/4 odds 5 places or 1/5 odds 6 7 or 8 places is better.

– 1/4odds 5 places is always better than 1/5odds 6 places.

– 1/5odds 7 or 8 places upwards is preferred to 1/4odds 5 places.

– 1/5odds 10 each way book Betfair exchange is best even losing 20% off our minimum price is acceptable.

One point I have noticed these opening couple of weeks has been how much liquidity the 10 place each way exchange book has 36 hours before event.

– I managed to get Larrazabal and Stone at 100/1 each way 10 places in Abu Dhabi

– I managed to get Stuard at 170, Landry at 90, Putnam 28 and Swafford 38 each way 10 places in Desert Classic

You can see patience can pay off by waiting on the betfair exchange each way book and at 10 places we can accept losing 20% of price.

Of course with so many players getting between 6th and 8th these last two weeks it has brought it to our attention and I hope this will be helpful going forward.

Unibet and 888sport have 6 places and often start at bigger prices than the rest so in these circumstances it is fine to take 6 providing we have at least 25% better price than other books.

I know it can feel complicated so DM anytime until you feel comfortable with all the changing dynamics.

A promising position in the Sony Open going into tonight’s third round and a few members have asked me about hedging in this position. Hedging is very much a personal thing and comes down to what your happiest doing, the one advice I would give is if you do it you need to be consistent and do it every time. Long term I am not sure it makes too much difference but it does keep varience down if you prefer.
My read on situation is that before last night I was concerned that Putnams opening round was a freak putting one but probability is now he is playing and putting well.
Matt Kuchar just missed out on selection in my place model but he did win before Christmas so warrants respect.
At todays prices with fresh eyes Putnam still looks slightly the better pick of the two, but you would expect with no bad weather forecast that both players or one will shoot 8 under minimum over final 2 rounds making it difficult for field to catch up without shooting 12/13under or better for final two rounds.
For betting purposes I am also happy to rule out Cink or Reavie winning but respect the two players at 9 under more as potential winners, Leishman and Potter.
If both players start tonight playing well again and get 3 under for the opening nine holes it could quickly become a match. If you won’t be staying up like me you could potentially leave some offers in exchange to lay Putnam at even money and less, probably drip feed them in from 1.96 to 1.12 at regular intervals just in case that scenario develops.
Another option is Kuchar trading now at 2.70 on the exchanges in comparison to 11/8 with the bookmakers so those who are not laying Putnam a 1 unit bet at 2.68+ is an option.
Hope that helps, let’s hope for good rounds from all our players this evening.

Have a good weekend

Craig

Welcome to all new and old subscribers to my blog. I am delighted we now have our new platform and grateful to Tennis Pilot for their help through the process. Great to have a blog to give you all an in sight into my thought process that goes into my tips over the coming weeks.
For those of you that are old subscribers I apologise if you’ve heard this before however, it is important that you all follow the staking plan for over the season it will balance your price ranges and keep varience down to a minimum. That is not to say our bankrolls will not suffer short term varience so it is always important to keep your discipline regardless of results. Despite what people think I don’t see myself as a professional gambler, much rather a sensible one who knows how to spread risk over time.
I work a betting market backwards and stake according to my perceived value. Golf in particular is a brilliant sport to bet as most events have near one hundred and fifty runners giving the bookmakers pricing nightmares. Their attention and most punters are drawn to the top of the market but long term I am much happier backing a 200/1 shot whose price I believe is approximately between 50/1 and 66/1.
We will have winners at shorter prices on our place model even then though some will be 20/1 plus at times. Significantly easier to tip a 20/1 place model winner than a 20/1 outright winner from one hundred and fifty runners.
You will also notice on my First Round Leader selections I rarely tip below 100/1 because of dead heat probability. We have already had two 250/1 winners in last four months and numerous place returns. Varience Is high but profit also.
From my years as a snooker professional I have an understanding in how a sportsmans mind works during the long season. The ebbs and flows of the mind will affect the bio-rhythms and endorphins that give the best or worst hand to eye co-ordination on the day.
The snooker model will have the lowest varience, put simply the average price is lower but this complements the golf models perfectly.

Any queries or advice just DM me on Twitter anytime.

All The Best for the New Year

Craig