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Craig Edwards' Snooker and Golf Blog

Thursday Quarter Final brief thoughts

Uncategorised Posted on 27 Feb, 2020 09:47AM

Dear snooker member,

The three quarter finals left look difficult to bet on. We do have Bingtao effectively to win at 8.00 for his quarter.  Murphy (13.00) scraped through yesterday to play Allen.  Joining Bingtao (51.00) leaving us in a promising each-way outright position.

Selby v Maguire

Looks a match to swerve between two generally inconsistent performers this season. Both have had a few great tournaments this season but also a few more abject displays than ideal.

Perry v Bingtao

First time these two have ever played, Perry has the experience of playing in the televised/main table on Tuesday. Overall Perry has a below average record in quarter finals however, I was surprised to see his price open 2.20. Possibly the bookies now over reacting after all season under rating Bingtao. There is also ranking connotations for both players in this match to consider not that I expect either to have an adverse reaction.
Generally a difficult match to call. I will hedge our Bingtao quarter bet if he gets in front (in-play telegram channel).

Murphy v Allen

I will be back with my thoughts on this match tomorrow because today’s results may have a bearing on Allen’s mindset and whether or not we have a bet.

Players Championship

Uncategorised Posted on 24 Feb, 2020 06:15PM

Trump v Holt

Interesting match up with Holt having a few results over the years. If Holt was to win I would expect it to be easy but no –1.5 on Alternate handicap available. Trump is sometimes a slow starter to events especially in matches he is expected to win. The handicap line at +3.5 looks fine for, a full of confidence, Holt to cover.

Ding v Maguire, Selby v Williams, Higgins v Dott

All three look impossible with generally inconsistent performers lately and prices spot on. Ding threatened to play well at Welsh until they stuck him on a side table. Dott missing last week is a concern I didnt anticipate.

Robertson v Perry

Not sure what to make of Robertson, at his best sublime but I cannot feel sympathy for ‘fatigue card’ he played at Welsh and would have played at Grand Prix if Holt had beaten him in their opening match. If he was a golfer he would have transatlantic flights to endur (they never bleat). If he is vulnerable and to have an ‘off day’ it will be in this match maybe against a player who ‘knows the time of day’ like Perry, plus Perry is overdue a win in their match ups.

Murphy v Gilbert

Tough match for Murphy, winner could easy make the semi-final and in Murphy’s case, win the title.

Allen v Theppy

Allen’s pre Christmas form has left him and looks vulnerable to a a player who has beat him on several occasion’s.

Wilson v Bingtao

Bingtao continues to be underratted and over priced. This match is a perfect example, nearer a coin flip or Kyren as slight favourite.

Yearly review

Uncategorised Posted on 12 Jan, 2020 11:15AM

Dear golf and snooker member,

Above is the stats for the service.  Top line is lifetime which is a month short of two years while the bottom line is 2020

Overall it has been a good second year for the service, with the golf place doing its job of grinding a profit while we take bigger priced shots in the golf outright.  This brings balance to the principal of grinding a regular profit for golf members.  With patience and discipline golf is the best betting medium I am aware of and has been for nearly 30 years.  There are so many markets to exploit and despite the bookmakers squeezing their percentage in the last two years.  Using one perspective it has been remarkable that not one place model pick has won a tournament in the two years because they will, but in truth that is my strength as a tipster, recognising which players are comfortable playing for cheques and which ones excel in winning positions.  From my background of playing snooker I realise how the mind-set of a professional can make up easily 90% of the performance.  Players do evolve or seek sports psychiatrists help and I also believe I try to be sensitive/learn all the time.  In hindsight my staking could have been better despite significant profits, when we moved in heavily on someone or an event the result was not there, whereas in 2018 we smashed into a few like Tom Lewis (50/1), Tom Gillis 66/1 and 175/1 (twice), and Matt Jager (250/1).  On the one hand that distorted my figures but again that is my strength as a tipster.

I have a couple of areas that I want to improve, firstly the last couple of weeks of 2019 when our staking was relatively small, we moved the markets very fast.  That could be possibly because events not on the PGA Tour and European Tour don’t have robust enough markets.  Time will tell, and if markets start to move too fast and existing subscribers keep missing out, I will stop taking new members until someone leaves.  Hopefully that won’t be the case when the main tours start.

Second area, on the place model, I am considering increasing selections over the coming year by no more than 10%.  Looking at my notes and lists from last year if I had changed criteria for selection down one notch, I realised we would have increased profit and with it being the most stable commodity we have; the goal is to move it over 30% ROI. 

The snooker, has been a gring, particularly from April onwards but overall when you consider that Shaun Murphy 20/1 and Thepchayia un-Nooh 100/+ place, were our only decent outright draws, that in its own right is encouragement.  As with all sports there is unpredictability and no two days are the same (I can remember, just, lol) but of course that is no excuse just a fact.

Overall the beauty of the service is you don’t have to stake thousands and at £10 = 1 unit or £1 = 0.1 unit the service has yielded over £6000 profit in two years.  I accept the temptation is always to get stuck into short priced selections but my figures tell you different.  For those reasons it is my disciplined members that use golf exchanges well that get the most out of the service.  Using the exchanges wisely can only increase your profits on my figures and I am always happy to help with that.  Bookies make it more awkward than ever these days so always be prepared to use close family and friends accounts when possible.

For January the all-inclusive yearly package is down to £249.99.  Anyone who has time on their package but wants to take advantage of the offer can do so and i will extend their current expiry date.

Lastly, I sincerely hope you all have had a good Christmas and wish you a happy new year.


Masters Outright

Uncategorised Posted on 12 Jan, 2020 10:38AM

Snooker Betting Predictions and Tips


January 12-19

Alexandra Palace, London

The first snooker tournament of 2020 is the prestigious Masters which makes up the third part in snooker’s Triple Crown with the UK Championship and World Championship.  This is an elite invitation tournament for the top 16 in the world rankings at the completion of the UK Championship in early December 2019.  With £250,000 first prize and £15,000 for an invitation, it is an event that player’s clamber to make.  This year, however, seven times champion Ronnie O’Sullivan has decided to refuse the invite opening up an extra spot for Ali Carter who was ranked 17th and giving a different and more open dimension to the event.


Judd Trump v Shaun Murphy

Ding Junhui v Joe Perry

Mark Selby v Ali Carter

John Higgins v Barry Hawkins

Neil Robertson v Stephen Maguire

Mark Allen v David Gilbert

Kyren Wilson v Jack Lisowski

Mark Williams v Stuart Bingham

Betting Predictions and Tips

Judd Trump is the defending champion and number one seed having beating Ronnie O’Sullivan in last year’s final.  Last year’s win was the launching pad for a superb 2019 that saw Trump become World Champion for the first time.  With five other tournament wins Trump has an impressive lead at the top of the world rankings and the ‘man to beat’ this week.  He does have an extremely difficult opening match against 2015 champion, Shaun Murphy who was back his brilliant best, winning the China Championship after two other runner-up finishes in the Asian swing in the early months of the world snooker 2019/2020 season.  The winner of that match will probably face another tough task against China’s Ding Junhui who emerged from a two-year slump by winning the UK Championship in December.  He too is a previous Masters champion back in 2011 and was a semi-finalist last year. The Chinese superstar is a player who needs confidence and one of the few players with a good head to head record against Judd Trump.  Happily, my subscribers are on Ding Junhui at 34.00 from December and have great value but don’t be mistaken this section is the most difficult by far.  Joe Perry made the final at Alexandra Palace the last time he played and has beaten Ding twice in the Masters.  Perry may be the outsider of the section, but those facts combined with an ability to play well versus Trump and Ding he could play a factor.

Without doubt, the top half of the draw is the hardest with another former champion, Mark Selby looking back to his best in recent months by winning two home nations events, the English Open and the Scottish Open just three weeks ago.  In 2008 Selby, remarkably won the first of his three Masters titles on debut and with his other wins in 2010 and 2013 he also had two runner-up finishes to mean he competed in five finals in a seven-year period by 2014.  Surprisingly he has not made a semi-final in the last five years and looks overdue.

The bottom half has Neil Robertson leading the way after a superb 2018/2019 season saw him catapult back into the top 4 having dropped out of the elite top 16 a year earlier.  The 2019/2020 season has been poor for the Australian in ranking tournaments but did win the invitation Champion of Champions tournament in a final of the highest quality against Judd Trump.  He has an awkward first-round match against a rejuvenated Stephen Maguire to negotiate.  The winner of Robertson/Maguire will play Mark Allen or this year’s debutant David Gilbert.  It is a tall order for a debutant to win the Masters and Gilbert is not a proven winner despite being superb all year.  Mark Allen though was the 2018 Masters champion and has six semi-final appearances in nine tournaments this 2019/2020 campaign.  He will be hard to beat and the winner of this quarter will be favourite in the semi-final against a weak looking quarter 4.

The weak-looking quarter 4 sees 2018 runner-up Kyren Wilson play Scottish Open runner up Jack Lisowski while double Masters champion, Mark Williams plays Stuart Bingham.  Jack Lisowski looks the only in-form player in this segment and should improve on last year’s nervous Masters’ debut.  One noticeable fact about Lisowski is his ability to lose in the early stages of ranking tournaments to older journeyman pros while his multiple positive head to head records against many of the top players.  Possibly the logic is that playing the best players frees him up to go for his shots and no doubt if they go in at the Alexandra Palace the crowd will get behind the talented left-hander.

In summary, Mark Selby and Mark Allen are three solid bets to win their respective quarters while Lisowski looks the value from the weakest quarter.

Masters 12th and 13th

Uncategorised Posted on 12 Jan, 2020 10:15AM

Sunday 12th January, 13:00

Ding Junhui v Joe Perry

Betting Odds: Junhui 1.45, Perry 3.10

Head to Head: 16-6

This year’s tournament leads off on the afternoon of Sunday the 12th January with 2011 champion Ding Junhui playing Joe Perry.

Ding Junhui won his third UK Championship in December and re-established his credentials at the top of the sport.  He had been in a slump for over two seasons since losing to Mark Selby in the 2017 World Snooker Championship semi-final.  In 2016 he also suffered a close loss in the 2016 World Snooker Championship final to the same player and possibly fell out of love with the game.  Having followed his UK Championship win with many impressive wins at the Scottish Open and overseas qualifying he arrives at Alexandra Palace with a new impetus in his career and is amongst the leading contenders for the title.

Gentleman Joe Perry will be no easy match for the Chinese superstar after his last Masters appearance in 2017 resulted him losing to Ronnie O’Sullivan in the final.  Perry is one of the most performers on the circuit and regularly proves his ability to mix it with the very best.  To illustrate that he has beat reigning world champion and world number one twice in just over a year while also making the final at last season’s European Masters.

Like always at the Masters there are no easy matches with only the world’s top 16 invited.  This has potential to be a high-quality opening for the event and these two players have an interesting history at the event.  Ding Junhui won their first encounter at this great championship but surprisingly to many Perry has won their two most recent matches here.  At first glance of their head to head it would be understandable to think to expect Ding to justify favouritism but at Alexandra Palace, Perry raises his game.

In that knowledge we will concentrate on the break markets and despite the opening frames on a new cloth being awkward with the cushions sliding it does however, make the pockets play slightly easier the longer the match progresses.

If Bet365 put up no centuries in frame 1-4 close to the start it is worth a small bet at 1.80+.  Long term members will know it is a market we target here and the World Championship winning on the last six occasions.

Sunday 12th January

Mark Selby v Ali Carter

Betting Odds: Mark Selby 1.44, Ali Carter 3.30

Head to Head: 19-12

Mark Selby has a superb record at the Masters winning on three occasions, on debut in 2007, then 2009 and 2012.  It is a while since he featured prominently in the tournament and maybe this is the year, he wins a fourth title having rediscovered his best form in recent months winning the English and Scottish Open’s.

The Captain, Ali Carter was the grateful and unlikely recipient from the withdrawal of his arch adversary Ronnie O’Sullivan.  Always one of the toughest match-players on the snooker circuit Carter has been grinding wins all season without reaching the later stages of tournaments.  His last final was at the start of 2019 at the Coral Grand Prix.

There is a match to like in this match and that is to exploit Ali Carter who in recent months has been starting matches slowly only winning frame 1 on one occasion in his last seven matches.  Paddy Power have Mark Selby to win frame 1 and the match at 2.00 which looks a solid bet for those who can otherwise concentrate on Selby to win frame 1 at 1.60+.

Recommended Snooker Bets

Mark Selby – to win frame 1 and the match @ 2.00 (1/1) Paddy Power

Monday 13th January

Neil Robertson v Stephen Maguire

Betting Odds: Neil Robertson 1.33, Stephen Maguire 3.60

Head to Head: 10-16

Australian, Neil Robertson attempts to win his second Masters title this year having won the first one ever at Alexandra Palace in 2012.  He has managed two runner-up finishes since and last year lost in the semi-final to eventual champion, Judd Trump.  After a superb 2018-2019 season that saw Robertson rise back to sport’s highest echelons the current season in ranking tournaments has been a disaster.  Missing his flight to the season opening Riga Masters when he was defending champion seems to have set the precedent for what was to come.  In the Champion of Champions however he did find the previous season’s form beating Ronnie O’Sullivan and Judd Trump in scintillating fashion a couple of months ago to remind us his best is not far away.

Four times Stephen Maguire has made the semi-final at the Masters, the last of which was in 2014.  This season has been a significant improvement for the Scot having taken ownership of a shared practice facility with friends John Higgins and Anthony McGill.  He won the World Cup with Higgins then won the Six Reds World Championship followed by reaching the final of the UK Championship, amassing over £300,000 in the process.

An interesting matchup when you consider Maguire holds a surprising head to head advantage, primarily accumulated in their early careers’ when Maguire won their opening six encounters.  For those reasons we can expect a good showing from Maguire guaranteeing a high-quality match with plenty of breaks.

First Round Leader market review

Golf Posted on 05 Jun, 2019 01:12PM

For reasearch reasons I’ve dropped bets that only returned on place part which is small between 8 and 15 units dependent on place terms which can be affected as firms carry mainly 5 but some 7.

141 bets at 49 units staked with 93.50 returned so profit of 43.50 units upto November 28th

110 bets at 50 units loss since last win November 28th 2018.

66/1 25 units profit 0.3 ew Kevin Na

250/1 4 way 12.50 units profit 0.1 ew Calum Tarren

250/1 2 way 0.3 ew 56 unit profit 0.3 ew Matt Jager

Na 66s, Tarren 250s and Jager 250s they would have 93.50 units profit however we have 99 units in losing bets.

Negligible amount of place only bets ( anywhere between 10- 15 units profit, 10 being 5 places and 15 being 8 places) but I will drop them for this study. So with them dropped we are 5.50 units in loss.

Approximate figures

250 bets at 100 unit Cost

3 winners have returned 93.50 unit profit.

So a 7.5 unit loss which with the place returns becomes breakeven effectively.

WE ARE ON A 50 UNIT DOWNSWING. That has drawn us back to all square in effect

When I reviewed my criteria for tipping and staking if I had tightened range to the 0.3 ew or possibly the 0.2 ew bets we would still have backed Na at 66s and Jager at 250s.

So moving forward I intend to tighten criteria down significantly giving less bets in this market.

Craig Edwards

Results review

Snooker Posted on 15 May, 2019 09:06PM

Dear snooker member,

I understand Black type bet will price the Q school matches tomorrow and that means a good chance bet365 will, however I would be happy for anyone to message or tweet bet365 asking (more the better and use someone else twitter or account so not to redflag).

I have been reviewing results since February 2018 with having some downtime with a few findings to learn from going forward.

Bets 550, staked 458 profit 83 ROI 18%, TOTAL

Bets 120, staked 134 profit 31, ROI 23%, price range 1.50-1.99

Bets 106, staked 106, profit 30, ROI 28%, price range 2.00-2.49

Bets 74, staked 58, profit -2.5, ROI -5%, price range 2.50-2.99

Bets 84, staked 68, profit 12, ROI 18.5%, price range 3.00-3.99

Bets 101, staked 60, profit 24, ROI 40%, price range 4.00-10.00

Bets 65, staked 32, profit -12, ROI -37%, price range 10.01-1000


1.5-2.49 range, better than I expected and I never tip below 1.66. Something to build on with staking wise

4.00-10.00 range, good and again staking will increase

3.00-3.99 range, acceptable, staking similar in future


2.50-2.99 range, poor return and I intend to address this going forward by going over my process from previous bets and reduce staking in this area.

10+ range, a disappointing return however, bets were outright selections and stakes smallest at 0.50 average.


Always lots to learn and a bad World Championship has dragged the overall ROI down however, that goes with the territory and next year in the World Championships i will add a Telegram channel for those who want. Bets will have less time to be placed and NOT included in P&L.

Going forward into the new season I will steer away from the 2.50-2.99 area unless I feel we have large margin with bets to smaller stakes.

The outrights we have endured a dreadful run however I will keep stakes small while the sample unwinds a little more.

I will increase my staking in the 1.66-2.50 and 4.00 and above.

18% ROI is very acceptable given the poor outright return.

Happy for all feedback and thoughts. ( quantity of bets ? is it enough ? too many ? or not enough ? )

Come and DM me on twitter for chat about these subjects anytime.

I hope the stats help our staking going forward.

China Open semi finals

Snooker Posted on 05 Apr, 2019 10:15PM

Dear snooker member,

China Open, semi finals

An interesting semi final line up tomorrow and I give both underdogs solid chances. Luca Brecel has a star quality and the level of his play increases with each match he wins making him a more dangerous opponent at the later stages of tournaments but Neil Robertson is in sublime form himself.

The other match Donaldson has a good head2head with Lisowski and is just the sort of player who will frustrate the talented left hander the longer the match progresses.

All four semi finalists break building has been excellent all week and there is a case for both underdogs in high break scorer market. When players win four best of 11 matches you can expect their break building to be flawless so when I advise a bet I like the player I am opposing to be opposable for certain reasons which we don’t have.

The only one of the four I feel may drop his level a little is Jack Lisowski (erratic but classy) but we need nearer 3/1 Scott Donaldson which we will get in running if he falls a frame behind so i would not rule out a bet between sessions as the semi finals are best of 19.

If your watching in the morning and Scott Donaldson looks at ease and relaxed, maybe a small bet at 3/1 in running during the opening session if you can and we may go in again for the final session aswell.

My thoughts and hope it helps but keep stakes small if you do bet and enjoy what should be two interesting semi finals.

Year Review

General Posted on 25 Mar, 2019 02:40PM

Hopefully a good time to review, particularly for the new members who signed up at our site launch with the start of 2019. We had an unusually prolonged run of 9/10 weeks without an outright winner and these last two weeks the buses come along winning back to back and with it our overall ROI has increased from 12% to 23.56%.

2019 Stats

Snooker: 118 bets, staked 80.5, profit 15.26, ROI 18.96%
G Place : 128 bets, staked 77.7, profit 25.37, ROI 32.65%
Outright: 146 bets, staked 67.5, profit 12.56, ROI 18.58%
Overall : 392 bets, stake 225.8, profit 53.20, ROI 23.56%

Lifetime Stats

Snooker: 470 bets, 406 staked, 75.84 profit, ROI 18.88%
G Place : 557 bets, 459 staked, 144.5 profit, ROI 31.46%
Outright: 523 bets, 254 staked, 216.7 profit, ROI 85.19%
Overall : 1550 bets, 1119.5 stake, 437.01 profit, ROI 39.04%

The one thing to consider is the stakes are set to balance my overall range however, some members treat the place and snooker as investments portolios and stake accordingly knowing variance is not as volatile as outright.

The one thing to consider is the stakes are set to balance my overall range however, some members treat the place and snooker as investments portolios and stake accordingly knowing variance is not as volatile as outright. Since the start of the year on snooker model we have a statistician Ben Gazeley collecting data and using previous data and you will may have noticed changes to the markets we exploit. As the year develops we will increase the range of markets we exploit and I suggest you give Ben a follow on Twitter @BGazeley.

Since the start of the year on snooker model we have a statistician Ben Gazeley collecting data and using previous data and you will may have noticed changes to the markets we exploit. As the year develops we will increase the range of markets we exploit and I suggest you give Ben a follow on Twitter @BGazeley.

We are working off a three year sample and building our sample at the same time thus, I am excited long term that an already a solid model will find significant improvement. I have been disappointed with our results on outright snooker markets so to be running just under 20% long term is testament to our match analysis and ability to judge changes in momentum quicker than the bookmaker.

We are working off a three year sample and building our sample at the same time thus, I am excited long term that an already a solid model will find significant improvement. I have been disappointed with our results on outright snooker markets so to be running just under 20% long term is testament to our match analysis and ability to judge changes in momentum quicker than the bookmaker.

Golf place is always consistent and I am delighted to be running at 30% again this year however, I do believe we are running slightly above variance. I know it is hard to keep bookmakers accounts open and we rely on using family and friends but if you can keep Betfred, Tote Bwin and Sporting Bet for this model as they pay full on dead heats and anytime they have minimum price it is a great option to have.

Golf Outright has been below variance even taking into account these last two weeks of Molinari at 41 and Furyk 81 and a run of sixty bets without an each way place hurt. That is second time in twelve months we had such a run. We still yield over 85% at best price on this model over 523 bets in just over twelve months but just 18.58% this year.

I have been disappointed by our results in the first round leader market but with an average price of 151 and approximately seventy bets in 2019 that is to be expected when you consider variance was particularly kind before Christmas with two 250/1 winners. Last week Steele and Sabbatini came one shot shy of full place at 200/1 so small margins.

Three months into the new year our new members will have seen how I operate. I appreciate it is a high volume of bets for subscriber so long term there has to be a decent yield. The beauty of betting the entire range is you do not have to bet big to have fun and make a profit. The option is always there to bet bigger stakes if your comfortable so there is something for all types of punters in what I offer.

I got talked into tipping a year ago and in general I really enjoy it now knowing how many of you are genuine snooker and golf fans. In the long run if members are struggling to get on at best prices we will cap membership and despite the odd plunge in prices we are all getting on at the moment.

I am always happy for feedback or discuss as we never stop learning so your always welcome to email or DM myself.

January so far……

General Posted on 24 Jan, 2019 07:41PM

We hit the crossbar in the opening two weeks of the year but last week we crushed the place model in particular with Sloan 10/1 (20/1 exchange), Langley 10/1 and Poston 13/2 winning in the Desert Classic, we also had Svensson placing at 100/1 on the first round leader market for those who could get on the unofficial tip. Across the Atlantic on the European Tour at Abu Dhabi, Louis Oosthuisen placed at 22/1 while Pablo Larrazabal placed at 100/1 and how refreshing to see so many of you used the 10 place each way book on the Betfair exchange getting a full return.
Our current week and this last one are indicative of what level and quality of tips members can expect when both tours are in full swing at regular venues.

This week the main golf tours are in action at long established venues with the opening round at the Omega Desert Classic just completed and plenty of our selections have made good solid starts.
What the opening round scores today illustrates is how careful we have to be with our first Round Leader selections average price. Dead heat rules affect the place part of selections in the long run so I always keep stakes small and rarely go below 100/1 on a full field event without very solid reasons and these selections may be win only. Varience is at the highest on our selections in this market but stakes are small in comparison to our range and as most of you know we have already had two 250/1 winners in last 3 months. Even then both were dead heat affected so in effect 250/1 two way dead heat paying 125/1 on win market and four way dead heat on the other to 62.5/1 again on win market.
We have approximately 15 units profit so far this month
Tonight in San Diego we have the Farmers Insurance starting and we have three outright selections given the knowledge that the top of the market is strong with course specialists in Woods, Day, Rahm and Leishamn to name a few.
Our three alternatives include our own course specialist Brandt Snedeker at a reasonable 50/1 followed by two promising professionals whose career are on solid inclines at the moment.
Abraham Ancer won the Emirates Australian Open in impressive style before Christmas and after last week’s 18th blowing any cobwebs away we can expect the young Mexican to be pushing hard for his maiden PGA tour win.
J J Spaun has a very similar profile and after the last two years at this venue promising much he will be sharper for last week making the three figure price made appeal. Hopefully many of you got matched on Betfair exchange 10place book on the later two selections.

Next week we have the long established Phoenix Open in Arizona on the PGA tour and we will be concentrating our efforts there. The European Tour hosts the Saudi International at a new venue so I cannot imagine many bets as I like a conservative approach in these circumstances while learning what we can for future years.

That said we have snooker returning from a week off with the German Masters a well established ranking event starts which starts next Wednesday so you can expect bets will be sent in the coming days as bookmakers price matches and Outrights.

The month so far we have had several places on the outright model without a tournament winner and the balance the place model brings is illustrated perfectly.

January 2019: Bets 64, staked 36.5, profit 17.43, ROI 47.75%

This week we have staked 19.2 units across 32 selections.

Let’s hope we have another good weekend


5/6/7/8 or 10 places

Golf Posted on 20 Jan, 2019 07:53PM

With so many players showing up well only to fall away and it prompted a few members to ask whether 1/4 odds 5 places or 1/5 odds 6 7 or 8 places is better.

– 1/4odds 5 places is always better than 1/5odds 6 places.

– 1/5odds 7 or 8 places upwards is preferred to 1/4odds 5 places.

– 1/5odds 10 each way book Betfair exchange is best even losing 20% off our minimum price is acceptable.

One point I have noticed these opening couple of weeks has been how much liquidity the 10 place each way exchange book has 36 hours before event.

– I managed to get Larrazabal and Stone at 100/1 each way 10 places in Abu Dhabi

– I managed to get Stuard at 170, Landry at 90, Putnam 28 and Swafford 38 each way 10 places in Desert Classic

You can see patience can pay off by waiting on the betfair exchange each way book and at 10 places we can accept losing 20% of price.

Of course with so many players getting between 6th and 8th these last two weeks it has brought it to our attention and I hope this will be helpful going forward.

Unibet and 888sport have 6 places and often start at bigger prices than the rest so in these circumstances it is fine to take 6 providing we have at least 25% better price than other books.

I know it can feel complicated so DM anytime until you feel comfortable with all the changing dynamics.

Sony hedging options

Golf Posted on 12 Jan, 2019 01:26PM

A promising position in the Sony Open going into tonight’s third round and a few members have asked me about hedging in this position. Hedging is very much a personal thing and comes down to what your happiest doing, the one advice I would give is if you do it you need to be consistent and do it every time. Long term I am not sure it makes too much difference but it does keep varience down if you prefer.
My read on situation is that before last night I was concerned that Putnams opening round was a freak putting one but probability is now he is playing and putting well.
Matt Kuchar just missed out on selection in my place model but he did win before Christmas so warrants respect.
At todays prices with fresh eyes Putnam still looks slightly the better pick of the two, but you would expect with no bad weather forecast that both players or one will shoot 8 under minimum over final 2 rounds making it difficult for field to catch up without shooting 12/13under or better for final two rounds.
For betting purposes I am also happy to rule out Cink or Reavie winning but respect the two players at 9 under more as potential winners, Leishman and Potter.
If both players start tonight playing well again and get 3 under for the opening nine holes it could quickly become a match. If you won’t be staying up like me you could potentially leave some offers in exchange to lay Putnam at even money and less, probably drip feed them in from 1.96 to 1.12 at regular intervals just in case that scenario develops.
Another option is Kuchar trading now at 2.70 on the exchanges in comparison to 11/8 with the bookmakers so those who are not laying Putnam a 1 unit bet at 2.68+ is an option.
Hope that helps, let’s hope for good rounds from all our players this evening.

Have a good weekend



General Posted on 08 Jan, 2019 02:51PM

Welcome to all new and old subscribers to my blog. I am delighted we now have our new platform and grateful to Tennis Pilot for their help through the process. Great to have a blog to give you all an in sight into my thought process that goes into my tips over the coming weeks.
For those of you that are old subscribers I apologise if you’ve heard this before however, it is important that you all follow the staking plan for over the season it will balance your price ranges and keep varience down to a minimum. That is not to say our bankrolls will not suffer short term varience so it is always important to keep your discipline regardless of results. Despite what people think I don’t see myself as a professional gambler, much rather a sensible one who knows how to spread risk over time.
I work a betting market backwards and stake according to my perceived value. Golf in particular is a brilliant sport to bet as most events have near one hundred and fifty runners giving the bookmakers pricing nightmares. Their attention and most punters are drawn to the top of the market but long term I am much happier backing a 200/1 shot whose price I believe is approximately between 50/1 and 66/1.
We will have winners at shorter prices on our place model even then though some will be 20/1 plus at times. Significantly easier to tip a 20/1 place model winner than a 20/1 outright winner from one hundred and fifty runners.
You will also notice on my First Round Leader selections I rarely tip below 100/1 because of dead heat probability. We have already had two 250/1 winners in last four months and numerous place returns. Varience Is high but profit also.
From my years as a snooker professional I have an understanding in how a sportsmans mind works during the long season. The ebbs and flows of the mind will affect the bio-rhythms and endorphins that give the best or worst hand to eye co-ordination on the day.
The snooker model will have the lowest varience, put simply the average price is lower but this complements the golf models perfectly.

Any queries or advice just DM me on Twitter anytime.

All The Best for the New Year


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