Craig Edwards' Snooker and Golf Blog

For reasearch reasons I’ve dropped bets that only returned on place part which is small between 8 and 15 units dependent on place terms which can be affected as firms carry mainly 5 but some 7.

141 bets at 49 units staked with 93.50 returned so profit of 43.50 units upto November 28th

110 bets at 50 units loss since last win November 28th 2018.

66/1 25 units profit 0.3 ew Kevin Na

250/1 4 way 12.50 units profit 0.1 ew Calum Tarren

250/1 2 way 0.3 ew 56 unit profit 0.3 ew Matt Jager

Na 66s, Tarren 250s and Jager 250s they would have 93.50 units profit however we have 99 units in losing bets.

Negligible amount of place only bets ( anywhere between 10- 15 units profit, 10 being 5 places and 15 being 8 places) but I will drop them for this study. So with them dropped we are 5.50 units in loss.

Approximate figures

250 bets at 100 unit Cost

3 winners have returned 93.50 unit profit.

So a 7.5 unit loss which with the place returns becomes breakeven effectively.

WE ARE ON A 50 UNIT DOWNSWING. That has drawn us back to all square in effect

When I reviewed my criteria for tipping and staking if I had tightened range to the 0.3 ew or possibly the 0.2 ew bets we would still have backed Na at 66s and Jager at 250s.

So moving forward I intend to tighten criteria down significantly giving less bets in this market.

Craig Edwards

With so many players showing up well only to fall away and it prompted a few members to ask whether 1/4 odds 5 places or 1/5 odds 6 7 or 8 places is better.

– 1/4odds 5 places is always better than 1/5odds 6 places.

– 1/5odds 7 or 8 places upwards is preferred to 1/4odds 5 places.

– 1/5odds 10 each way book Betfair exchange is best even losing 20% off our minimum price is acceptable.

One point I have noticed these opening couple of weeks has been how much liquidity the 10 place each way exchange book has 36 hours before event.

– I managed to get Larrazabal and Stone at 100/1 each way 10 places in Abu Dhabi

– I managed to get Stuard at 170, Landry at 90, Putnam 28 and Swafford 38 each way 10 places in Desert Classic

You can see patience can pay off by waiting on the betfair exchange each way book and at 10 places we can accept losing 20% of price.

Of course with so many players getting between 6th and 8th these last two weeks it has brought it to our attention and I hope this will be helpful going forward.

Unibet and 888sport have 6 places and often start at bigger prices than the rest so in these circumstances it is fine to take 6 providing we have at least 25% better price than other books.

I know it can feel complicated so DM anytime until you feel comfortable with all the changing dynamics.

A promising position in the Sony Open going into tonight’s third round and a few members have asked me about hedging in this position. Hedging is very much a personal thing and comes down to what your happiest doing, the one advice I would give is if you do it you need to be consistent and do it every time. Long term I am not sure it makes too much difference but it does keep varience down if you prefer.
My read on situation is that before last night I was concerned that Putnams opening round was a freak putting one but probability is now he is playing and putting well.
Matt Kuchar just missed out on selection in my place model but he did win before Christmas so warrants respect.
At todays prices with fresh eyes Putnam still looks slightly the better pick of the two, but you would expect with no bad weather forecast that both players or one will shoot 8 under minimum over final 2 rounds making it difficult for field to catch up without shooting 12/13under or better for final two rounds.
For betting purposes I am also happy to rule out Cink or Reavie winning but respect the two players at 9 under more as potential winners, Leishman and Potter.
If both players start tonight playing well again and get 3 under for the opening nine holes it could quickly become a match. If you won’t be staying up like me you could potentially leave some offers in exchange to lay Putnam at even money and less, probably drip feed them in from 1.96 to 1.12 at regular intervals just in case that scenario develops.
Another option is Kuchar trading now at 2.70 on the exchanges in comparison to 11/8 with the bookmakers so those who are not laying Putnam a 1 unit bet at 2.68+ is an option.
Hope that helps, let’s hope for good rounds from all our players this evening.

Have a good weekend

Craig