Craig Edwards' Snooker and Golf Blog

Hopefully a good time to review, particularly for the new members who signed up at our site launch with the start of 2019. We had an unusually prolonged run of 9/10 weeks without an outright winner and these last two weeks the buses come along winning back to back and with it our overall ROI has increased from 12% to 23.56%.

2019 Stats

Snooker: 118 bets, staked 80.5, profit 15.26, ROI 18.96%
G Place : 128 bets, staked 77.7, profit 25.37, ROI 32.65%
Outright: 146 bets, staked 67.5, profit 12.56, ROI 18.58%
Overall : 392 bets, stake 225.8, profit 53.20, ROI 23.56%

Lifetime Stats

Snooker: 470 bets, 406 staked, 75.84 profit, ROI 18.88%
G Place : 557 bets, 459 staked, 144.5 profit, ROI 31.46%
Outright: 523 bets, 254 staked, 216.7 profit, ROI 85.19%
Overall : 1550 bets, 1119.5 stake, 437.01 profit, ROI 39.04%

The one thing to consider is the stakes are set to balance my overall range however, some members treat the place and snooker as investments portolios and stake accordingly knowing variance is not as volatile as outright.

The one thing to consider is the stakes are set to balance my overall range however, some members treat the place and snooker as investments portolios and stake accordingly knowing variance is not as volatile as outright. Since the start of the year on snooker model we have a statistician Ben Gazeley collecting data and using previous data and you will may have noticed changes to the markets we exploit. As the year develops we will increase the range of markets we exploit and I suggest you give Ben a follow on Twitter @BGazeley.

Since the start of the year on snooker model we have a statistician Ben Gazeley collecting data and using previous data and you will may have noticed changes to the markets we exploit. As the year develops we will increase the range of markets we exploit and I suggest you give Ben a follow on Twitter @BGazeley.

We are working off a three year sample and building our sample at the same time thus, I am excited long term that an already a solid model will find significant improvement. I have been disappointed with our results on outright snooker markets so to be running just under 20% long term is testament to our match analysis and ability to judge changes in momentum quicker than the bookmaker.

We are working off a three year sample and building our sample at the same time thus, I am excited long term that an already a solid model will find significant improvement. I have been disappointed with our results on outright snooker markets so to be running just under 20% long term is testament to our match analysis and ability to judge changes in momentum quicker than the bookmaker.

Golf place is always consistent and I am delighted to be running at 30% again this year however, I do believe we are running slightly above variance. I know it is hard to keep bookmakers accounts open and we rely on using family and friends but if you can keep Betfred, Tote Bwin and Sporting Bet for this model as they pay full on dead heats and anytime they have minimum price it is a great option to have.

Golf Outright has been below variance even taking into account these last two weeks of Molinari at 41 and Furyk 81 and a run of sixty bets without an each way place hurt. That is second time in twelve months we had such a run. We still yield over 85% at best price on this model over 523 bets in just over twelve months but just 18.58% this year.

I have been disappointed by our results in the first round leader market but with an average price of 151 and approximately seventy bets in 2019 that is to be expected when you consider variance was particularly kind before Christmas with two 250/1 winners. Last week Steele and Sabbatini came one shot shy of full place at 200/1 so small margins.

Three months into the new year our new members will have seen how I operate. I appreciate it is a high volume of bets for subscriber so long term there has to be a decent yield. The beauty of betting the entire range is you do not have to bet big to have fun and make a profit. The option is always there to bet bigger stakes if your comfortable so there is something for all types of punters in what I offer.

I got talked into tipping a year ago and in general I really enjoy it now knowing how many of you are genuine snooker and golf fans. In the long run if members are struggling to get on at best prices we will cap membership and despite the odd plunge in prices we are all getting on at the moment.

I am always happy for feedback or discuss as we never stop learning so your always welcome to email or DM myself.

We hit the crossbar in the opening two weeks of the year but last week we crushed the place model in particular with Sloan 10/1 (20/1 exchange), Langley 10/1 and Poston 13/2 winning in the Desert Classic, we also had Svensson placing at 100/1 on the first round leader market for those who could get on the unofficial tip. Across the Atlantic on the European Tour at Abu Dhabi, Louis Oosthuisen placed at 22/1 while Pablo Larrazabal placed at 100/1 and how refreshing to see so many of you used the 10 place each way book on the Betfair exchange getting a full return.
Our current week and this last one are indicative of what level and quality of tips members can expect when both tours are in full swing at regular venues.

This week the main golf tours are in action at long established venues with the opening round at the Omega Desert Classic just completed and plenty of our selections have made good solid starts.
What the opening round scores today illustrates is how careful we have to be with our first Round Leader selections average price. Dead heat rules affect the place part of selections in the long run so I always keep stakes small and rarely go below 100/1 on a full field event without very solid reasons and these selections may be win only. Varience is at the highest on our selections in this market but stakes are small in comparison to our range and as most of you know we have already had two 250/1 winners in last 3 months. Even then both were dead heat affected so in effect 250/1 two way dead heat paying 125/1 on win market and four way dead heat on the other to 62.5/1 again on win market.
We have approximately 15 units profit so far this month
Tonight in San Diego we have the Farmers Insurance starting and we have three outright selections given the knowledge that the top of the market is strong with course specialists in Woods, Day, Rahm and Leishamn to name a few.
Our three alternatives include our own course specialist Brandt Snedeker at a reasonable 50/1 followed by two promising professionals whose career are on solid inclines at the moment.
Abraham Ancer won the Emirates Australian Open in impressive style before Christmas and after last week’s 18th blowing any cobwebs away we can expect the young Mexican to be pushing hard for his maiden PGA tour win.
J J Spaun has a very similar profile and after the last two years at this venue promising much he will be sharper for last week making the three figure price made appeal. Hopefully many of you got matched on Betfair exchange 10place book on the later two selections.

Next week we have the long established Phoenix Open in Arizona on the PGA tour and we will be concentrating our efforts there. The European Tour hosts the Saudi International at a new venue so I cannot imagine many bets as I like a conservative approach in these circumstances while learning what we can for future years.

That said we have snooker returning from a week off with the German Masters a well established ranking event starts which starts next Wednesday so you can expect bets will be sent in the coming days as bookmakers price matches and Outrights.

The month so far we have had several places on the outright model without a tournament winner and the balance the place model brings is illustrated perfectly.

January 2019: Bets 64, staked 36.5, profit 17.43, ROI 47.75%

This week we have staked 19.2 units across 32 selections.

Let’s hope we have another good weekend

Craig

Welcome to all new and old subscribers to my blog. I am delighted we now have our new platform and grateful to Tennis Pilot for their help through the process. Great to have a blog to give you all an in sight into my thought process that goes into my tips over the coming weeks.
For those of you that are old subscribers I apologise if you’ve heard this before however, it is important that you all follow the staking plan for over the season it will balance your price ranges and keep varience down to a minimum. That is not to say our bankrolls will not suffer short term varience so it is always important to keep your discipline regardless of results. Despite what people think I don’t see myself as a professional gambler, much rather a sensible one who knows how to spread risk over time.
I work a betting market backwards and stake according to my perceived value. Golf in particular is a brilliant sport to bet as most events have near one hundred and fifty runners giving the bookmakers pricing nightmares. Their attention and most punters are drawn to the top of the market but long term I am much happier backing a 200/1 shot whose price I believe is approximately between 50/1 and 66/1.
We will have winners at shorter prices on our place model even then though some will be 20/1 plus at times. Significantly easier to tip a 20/1 place model winner than a 20/1 outright winner from one hundred and fifty runners.
You will also notice on my First Round Leader selections I rarely tip below 100/1 because of dead heat probability. We have already had two 250/1 winners in last four months and numerous place returns. Varience Is high but profit also.
From my years as a snooker professional I have an understanding in how a sportsmans mind works during the long season. The ebbs and flows of the mind will affect the bio-rhythms and endorphins that give the best or worst hand to eye co-ordination on the day.
The snooker model will have the lowest varience, put simply the average price is lower but this complements the golf models perfectly.

Any queries or advice just DM me on Twitter anytime.

All The Best for the New Year

Craig