Golf Outright 2021
Lifetime: 2297 bets, 48.67% ROI
2021: 708 bets, 38.44% ROI
After only breaking even in 2020, I was delighted to see the Golf Outright model back on track. Golf is a great betting sport and there’s more than one way to skin the cat and my style has always been the highest variance route in the attempt to maximise profits long term. This is a built-in ethos for my service as the lower variance of golf place and snooker manage our bankroll against those long losing streaks that hit the outright model. That downside to high variance has hurt us since September with no outright winners despite many close shaves as the model was above 50% at the end of August. That’s to be expected long term but the top of the market-dominating the PGA Tour events in the fall wasn’t helpful or the usual occurrence. Noticeable that my volume is high at 708 bets and one aim is to reduce that by 10 or 15% in 2022. The other aim is to improve my staking, as on occasion when we went 0.2ew or bigger our selections run poorly. That was something I did well in the opening two years of service but has been a leak the last two years. That’s likely variance but the short-term impact in 2021 hasn’t been ideal but the upside is we’ve had some serious CLV (closing line value) and unwittingly the bookies have dodged many good bullets in late 2021.
I need to mention, that like the golf place model, it’s entirely feasible someone betting exchanges at 30 to 40% higher win prices has a better ROI than our 38%.
Overall, I’m content we hit what we should on Golf outright in 2022 in the knowledge it would have been a little better in the second half of the year with kinder variance.
