After a poor couple of weeks on the golf, the perfect time to review how things have been going in 2021. The screenshot has top line of lifetime bets and bottom line of 2021.
Firstly, this week obviously Bubba was a major disappointment last night having traded at 1.52 as was Larrazabal, in Germany.
I will start with snooker as I know it’s been a quiet few weeks and it’s about to restart this month. There as a glut of outright winners around end of 2019 and start of 2020 but that has been barren since apart from Yuelong at 21.00 in the UK before xmas. With that considered, I am delighted by the figures given outrights have been costly and we have been left to accumulate profit on matches. Milton Keynes post covid helped the match betting while increasing our volume, no doubt but with a couple of exceptions all outright winners were less than 10.00 which was not helpful and maybe linked. Noticeable how Murphy was inspired by a venue in the Worlds so logically there may be better outright value post Milton Keynes.
The golf place model has performed poorly for the opening six months of 2021 and with exception of Coupland in the British Masters long priced winners have been thin on the ground. The average price of top 20 finishers has risen in recent weeks, yesterday 7 of top 18 in travelers were 200 or above while over in Germany there was 5 in top 14 or 8 in top 25, either way that trend suggests form is balanced back to pre covid times which is encouraging for our place model. I will keep stakes small through the British Open in four weeks and review again with a view to increasing stakes slightly during the later months of 2021. The place model had been such a brilliant performer maybe this is just an expected period of poor variance and we have had many players trade sub 1.2 in recent months only to implode while others have lost money by dead heating, either way I will review again post Open Championship.
The golf outright has been pleasing in 2021 having only broke even in 2020 but my high price and high variance style accounts for the most pleasing ROI (50% 2000bets) long term and the strength of the service despite one break even year. I have made several choices to increase stakes at different events and the results have been less than ideal so with that considered 35 units of profit in 2021 is gratefully accepted and actually could have been better.
The further I get into my tipster’s journey the more I realise that what I thought was a big sample is a perhaps a nothing sample and break even or periods of loss are maybe to be expected. As always the whole experience is a huge learning curve as dynamics change every day so thanks for the support and here’s to more profits in the later half of the year.
