Snooker Recap and Plan going forward
It’s been nice to have a little time off snooker and important I took the opportunity to review 2022 which has been poor upto now.
If you managed to get on Perry for quarter, Bingtao each way in German, Walker in Seniors and poach a bet on Vafaei in Shootout, you will still be easily in profit.
Four decent winners in outright and compare that to 2021 which saw no outright wins but ROI over 20% it comes as a shock.
Of course, it’s fine margins and quickly strengths can turn into a weakness. With any kind of decent form on the match betting in 2022 we would have been the ROI we expect.
The World Championship was the only event where the results were acceptable. Having best of 11 frames upwards helped in hindsight when used in conjunction of the knowledge that the last two World Championships and UK Championships which have been extremely profitable. Similarly, long frame format but those results have contrarily exposed a leak from me in 2022.
Long-term members will know we went to higher volume post Covid-19 in 2020 and hit the ground running when cleaning up in UK Championship but also the 100-break rate improved markedly at Milton Keynes, and we jumped on the bandwagon all season (took 365 a long time to adjust).
2021 like mentioned was super solid on matches (my best year) and undoubtedly this can create bad habits and maybe because the 2021 UK Championship was so good, it hid a few deficiencies appearing in my perming.
When a money line is set wrong in my opinion and we have a margin on the player we like, we step in. Of course, during that good run, we would back money line, handicap, high break scorer and player centuries as their prices were generically inflated to acceptable levels.
In hindsight, the problem came when we stepped in betting 3 and 4 markets in one match outside best of 11-frame format.
For the immediate future, any time we bet 3 markets plus in a match, the match will need to be best of 11 frames or longer. This will allow me to continue this period of self-reflection, and critique while we ease into the season whittling down to best market or two when prices allow. The old approach will only be trusted in the longer format for the time at UK Championship.
Betting and tipping demands, a constant introspection of one’s-self and in perspective, I had a similar poor six months at the start of 2019. So as much as we always thing we have the answers, it’s such a fluid process that all we can ever do is plan short term while being flexible enough to know results never matter in the short term.
What we think is a decent sample, can be non-descript in the future as sample gets bigger.
This leads me onto QSCHOOL which was a leak from me. The firms (especially b365) covered it comprehensively but only on the money line. Whether by design (I doubt but compiler is decent at 365), this left us one option and not having choice of handicap particularly and high break scorer hurt us. Hopefully, b365 cover it well again in the future and there may be a huge flipside for us if they do, with lessons learnt and kinder variance.
That said, we are on a run of losing fourteen from the last fifteen deciders so well below variance which although is hard to take, is just variance and vindication in small matter given we can expect 40% win-rate on deciders worst case scenario.
I’ve been lucky on one certain level to other tipsters and that’s my ability to cover two sports. They’ve complemented each other perfectly over 4 ½ years and for all my analysis, when snooker was poor for 6 months in 2019, golf went through the roof. Likewise, when golf was at it’s least profitable in 2020, snooker profits were the best ever.
It’s always a short-term problem if you only bet one sport or the other so it hurts more, but long-term profits are only thinks we have modicum of control over.
